Future Tension

Nate Silver is starting to get serious about forecasting the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. In fact, he's so serious that he's issuing two different kind of forecasts. Eventually, he says, they'll converge and become approximately the same but right now, his "Polls Only" forecast shows Hillary with 353 electoral votes as opposed to 183.7 for Trump with Gary Johnson getting a smidgen, whereas his "Polls Plus" forecast has her at 317.7 and Trump at 219.9 with Gary Johnson getting a smaller smidgen.

What's the difference between these two forecasts? "Polls Only" is just an aggregate of state polls which Silver and his crew have weighted to give more attention to some polls than others, based on their past accuracy, methodology, sample size and what they purport to be telling us. "Polls Plus" takes all that into account but also factors in certain data like demographics and economic trends.

Right now, you could say that it doesn't matter which one you believe. They both get us President Hillary by a landslide. Later on, one could indicate something that the other isn't telling us.

And there's also a "Now-cast" which shows the electoral totals if the election were to be held today. This could be extremely valuable if they suddenly decide to hold the election today. (Actually, the most interesting thing about this page is that it shows Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party getting 10.5% of the popular vote. I believe he needs to hit 15% to be included in the debates. That's not impossible.)

If you want to know how I look at all this — and I'm always surprised if anyone does — I think that Hillary will win in not a landslide but a tsunami if there isn't some major shakeup in what this election is about. I also think there will be a shakeup. By that, I'm thinking of another 9/11 or an assassination or actual proof that Hillary had Vince Foster murdered or a total collapse of the U.S. economy or something. A lot of people are saying that Trump won't change his game because he's not the kind of person who's used to changing his game. I think he's also not the kind of person who's used to losing so badly and so undeniably in public.

Something will have to happen and it may not be something he's capable of making happen. Which is not to say I don't think he'll try.