Are you laboring under the impression that yesterday Nate Silver predicted Hillary Clinton would win? Well, not quite. He said there was an 80% chance of it and it does sometimes rain on days when there's a 20% chance of rain.
More importantly, that's a forecast that is subject to change as the election progresses. Things almost certainly will change — and probably in both directions one or more times before November. In fact, a forecast like this may cause things to change…say, if it causes campaign donors to donate more or less in some direction or if it prompts a candidate to alter their strategy. So don't celebrate or mourn just yet.
Ed Kilgore amplifies on this topic. And here, Silver and his staff discuss it in greater detail.