Saturday, March 13, 2004

Six Weeks...

Just to remind you, my pal Sergio and I will be among the guests (including other pals like Paul Dini and Bill Morrison) at the Wondercon in San Francisco at the end of April. I'll be moderating four panels...so it should feel like a vacation compared to a San Diego gathering where I host three times that. They will all be interesting, and I'll post a schedule here as soon as I have one. Here's a banner ad that will take you to a place where you can find out more about this fun convention...

• Posted at 3:25 PM · LINK

Today's Political Rant

If we are to believe the polls, Americans overwhelmingly believe it is "inappropriate" for G.W. Bush to use pictures of 9/11 in his campaign commercials. I don't think it is, especially compared to the kinds of things we're going to be seeing in ads from both sides later this year. I mean, by August — maybe sooner — the Bush side is going to be accusing Kerry of murdering civilians in 'Nam and the Kerry side is going to be running footage of Bush on the morning of 9/11 that suggests in his direst hour of crisis, Bush froze up and maybe even hid out. Compared to what's coming, showing a couple of actors playing firefighters with a coffin is nothing.

What I wonder is not if the ads are appropriate but whether they'll be effective with that most important fraction of the electorate: The folks who can still be swayed. To me, the most interesting thing about the polls is not who they show ahead but how fervent that candidate's supporters seem to be. When I see the polls say, "...if the election were held tomorrow," I think how many Americans are probably wishing that could be arranged.

Another thing I find interesting is how the polls keep talking about how the race breaks down with Nader in or out. It strikes me that Nader is not likely to be either in or out. He'll be "sort of in but not really." First off, unless Republicans launch a massive drive on his behalf, Nader won't be on the ballot in most states. So polls that show him getting 4-7% of the vote are especially meaningless since they presume he'll be on the same level of "choice" as Bush or Kerry. He won't be. I also suspect he won't really be running by Election Day. By a week or two before, Nader will have wrung every ounce of personal attention possible out of his candidacy. The way he'll get attention (and the admiration of many) that last week is to urge voters in any state where it's close to not vote for him. Which will make him even less of a real candidate when folks go to their polling places.

Of course, I'm being logical here. That may be the wrong approach.

• Posted at 1:32 PM · LINK