Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Still More on Late Night

I spent some time this A.M. scanning the Internet for comments about the Jay/Conan/Dave situation and I was struck by the extent to which fans balk at accepting that their favorite performers evolve and there's nothing they can do about it.

The Beatles did not spend their careers singing songs that went "Yeah, yeah, yeah" and Woody Allen moved beyond jokey films like Bananas. As a talk show host gets older and as the world around him changes, it is inevitable that his act would change. A lot of Conan fans seem fearful that, five years from now when he takes over The Tonight Show, he won't feel he can bring along Preparation-H Raymond and the Masturbating Bear. What I don't think they realize, or want to face, is that five years from now, Conan probably wouldn't be doing those bits, or bits like those bits, anyway. He will change, and NBC's banking on him changing in a way that will work at 11:35 in the year 2009. It's a gamble but it may not be as big a gamble as some other possible scenarios which would involve him competing now with Jay and/or Dave.

I have a friend who thinks that both Letterman and Leno are doing very weak programs that ought to be advertised, "Watch our show! Our host used to be real funny." And he suggests that neither host is doing the once-traditional prime-time anniversary special with highlights from the previous year because neither host can fill out an hour with highlights from the previous year. I wouldn't go that far but I wouldn't argue much that Jay and Dave are both coasting on a certain amount of momentum. Both have matured past their old, more irreverent styles and they're not going back to them, any more than Steve Martin's going to put on the arrow-thru-the-head prop and return to doing stand-up.

Whether or not NBC nudged Leno to limit his Tonight Show hosting to five more years, I'm inclined to think Jay has made a wise decision...and one that recognizes that no one can do that kind of show forever. Yeah, for a while there it looked like Carson could...but television has changed. For most of his run, Johnny had little or no competition. In fact, when he stepped down, an NBC exec theorized to me that Mr. Carson quit because he'd realized that the game was intensifying; that to stay in it would have meant reinventing his act, doing more shows per year and beating back challengers a lot more formidable than Alan Thicke and Pat Sajak. Just as Dave can no longer be Number One, there will soon come a time when Jay can't be, either...and he's wise to plan his exit before circumstances take it out of his control.

And speaking of "out of control": One of the things NBC has done with this move is to change the rules of the game. They're now planning way ahead and this will probably force CBS to do likewise. Right now, the execs at NBC have their 11:35 show set through the year 2011 (Jay's five years plus two guaranteed to Conan), and they have plenty of time to figure out 12:35 and find the right occupant. They can even sign someone way in advance. Jon Stewart — the name most often-mentioned when folks speak of new combatants in the late night arena — is signed to The Daily Show through 2008. Right this minute, NBC could be offering him a deal to replace Conan at 12:35, effective in '09.

By contrast, CBS is sitting there with no real host for their 12:35 show next month, let alone down the line...no idea how long Dave will elect to remain at 11:35...and no idea who they might get to replace him when he departs. During the last decade or two of Carson's marathon run, there was usually someone ready to go in for him — someone who, if Johnny suddenly dropped dead or quit, was the obvious choice to take over The Tonight Show. Usually, that was a frequent guest host and for the last five or so years of Johnny's run, they had two strong arms in the bullpen: A frequent guest host (Jay) and the guy who followed Johnny (Dave), both poised and ready. Throughout Letterman's stint on CBS, however, there has been no one on student stand-by. Dave resisted guest hosts and, when hospitalization forced the issue, most of the folks picked were names unlikely to ever be considered for a permanent position in that time slot. The same has been true of the occupiers of the 12:35 slot after Dave — Tom Snyder and then Craig Kilborn. At one point, Letterman's company had Jon Stewart under contract but apart from filling in a few times for Snyder, he did not get on the air.

This situation of having no one "on deck" for Dave's time slot will now have to change. He can probably stay there as long as he wants but at some point soon, the network's going to come to him and say that he cannot be an obstacle to them signing and grooming a successor. Moreover, like Conan, that successor may have to be able to see that the 11:35 job will be his within some reasonable length of time. Late night has become too important for CBS to say they'll wait 'til Dave's ready to leave, then they'll look around and see who's available and see what kind of deal they can make with that person.

Which makes you wonder how, if at all, this relates to the sudden abdication of Kilborn, who recently vacated the 12:35 slot. I'm told by folks at CBS that it was of his own free will and that it really did come as a surprise to everyone. Still, Kilborn's not dumb. He had to know that the issue of who was going to replace Dave would someday rear its head, that he wouldn't be considered, and that there were those at CBS determined to install Conan or Jon or some potential 11:35 talent in that position. I think Leno's smart to plan out his future as well as he has. I think O'Brien's smart to hang in there and get The Tonight Show for himself. And I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Craig Kilborn, consciously or not, didn't do the smartest thing of all by getting out when he did.

• Posted at 6:52 PM · LINK

Wheeeeerre's...Johnny?

Several folks have written to ask me if I thought Johnny Carson would appear on Leno's show tonight or ever, or on Dave's...and I recall that when Dave was out for medical reasons, a lot of his devout followers had the fantasy that Johnny would come in and guest host. My understanding is that it is currently Mr. Carson's intention to never, under any circumstances or for any reason, appear before a camera. Obviously, he could change his mind but close associates doubt this will happen. (On the other hand, there was a time when it seemed just as unlikely that Woody Allen would ever appear on an Academy Awards broadcast...) When Carson left The Tonight Show, he figured on finding some new niche in show business...but he never did.

He appeared on a cable award show special (an old promise) and did two silent cameos on Letterman's show. He also showed up when he received his 1993 Kennedy Center Honor...but that's it. He decided there was nothing he wanted to do and, according to one person who knows him pretty well, he discovered he liked being free of planning his next performance. The friend said, "Johnny likes that he can now go to dinner or play poker with whoever he likes without worrying that the person is going to start hitting him up to appear on his show or to get involved in some project. His pals all understand that he's out of show business and that's that."

Since then, he's turned down every invitation, every offer, every opportunity — and when you think about it, why shouldn't he? The man has no book to promote, no movie opening next Friday. He stands to gain nothing but an ego-boost he apparently does not need, at least not at the expense of a lot of people saying, "Look how old he's gotten." If he did appear again, it would not be on The Tonight Show, and not because he holds any ill feelings towards its present host. (I'm told that's all soothed over and, anyway, the problem was with NBC and Leno's then-manager, not with Jay.) It would have to be something really, really special. I can't imagine what that might be.

• Posted at 1:13 AM · LINK

Late Night Stuff

My pal Aaron Barnhart has a story in his paper, The Kansas City Star, all about the Leno/O'Brien announcement today. Here it is.

Another pal, Paul Harris, is covering the story on his newly-relocated (different channel) radio show. Here's some of what he and his guests have to say.

I don't really know Sam Johnson but I enjoy his weblog. In this post, he tells why he never cared for Leno. I, of course, do...but there are certain things I've learned never to try to change folks' minds about. These include religion, life on other planets, where to get the best pizza, who killed John F. Kennedy and, most of all, Favorite Late Night Host. But you might find Sam's viewpoint interesting.

• Posted at 1:07 AM · LINK

September 29, 2004 • Current • September 27, 2004