Saturday, October 2, 2004

Today's Political Rant (Second Thought)

I just re-read a line I posted earlier and changed my mind about it. It was the one that went, "I don't think we have any real post-debate polls yet. When we do, I wouldn't expect them to reflect any real gain for Kerry."

I'm thinking I discounted the "horse race" mentality of the press, and with the tendency of some pollsters to hedge their positions. I think there will be a number of polls that show Kerry even or maybe a little ahead. Why? Because "Kerry Comes From Behind With Debate Victory" is a better headline than "Debate Has No Impact on Polls." Even Fox News can afford the leisure, this far before Election Day, of going with the hot story.

I'm also thinking that we forget, or at least I forgot how impressive Kerry's numbers were on the debate. Going in, the polls had Bush at around 48% and Kerry at 43% or thereabouts. So if on the question of which candidate "won," Bush got 48% and Kerry got 43%...well, that would pretty much mean that no minds were changed; that everyone thought their guy was still their guy. For Kerry to even tie Bush in the post-debate polling would probably mean that a certain number of Bush supporters thought Kerry outperformed their candidate, which is not an easy admission for most voters to make, and one that's indicative of a certain softness in their Bush preference. That alone would be great news for Kerry. That he beat Bush by at least ten points (twenty in some counts) means that at the very least, he connected with a lot of people who were predisposed to vote Republican. He did not rack up those numbers just with Democrats or even with Democrats and Undecideds.

So I'll change and predict that we're about to see a couple of major polls that will have Kerry and Bush in a dead heat...and at least one that puts Kerry ahead.

• Posted at 2:40 PM · LINK

Saturday Night Library

The E! Channel now owns the rebroadcast rights to all the past seasons of Saturday Night Live. So far, they have stuck to the last few years with occasional dips into the Phil Hartman/Dana Carvey years.

But this last week — with reruns throughout this weekend — they've offered a fun overview of the series. They had five hour-long shows that counted down The 101 Most Unforgettable SNL Moments as determined by...uh, I have no idea. But whoever it was, they selected a pretty wide range of clips from all seasons, showing off all the major players and darn near every recurring bit. The clips are maddeningly brief. Most of the shows consist of interviews with a wide range of people (some who worked on SNL, many who didn't) reminiscing about their favorite routines.

Naturally, every SNL fan will disagree mightily with the rankings. Some folks (I am not one of them) think the first five seasons were the high point not just of the series but of all television comedy. Whoever made this list doesn't seem to agree. I think the highest-ranked moment from the original cast was a Blues Brothers appearance, which made the chart at #18. And the next ones below that were Roseanne Roseannadanna (#25), a Samurai sketch (#29) and the Coneheads (#32). You can evaluate the selections yourself beginning on this page.

To save you looking: They awarded #1 to the "Wayne's World" sketch that guested Aerosmith. And #2 was the opening with Rudy Giuliani and Lorne Michaels on the first broadcast after 9/11.

Even if you're aghast that certain sketches are ranked high, low or omitted, it's a real history of an important franchise. What I wish E! would do, and I doubt this will happen, is to take these five one-hour shows and replace the short clips with the full sketches. It would probably expand the countdown to at least 30 hours but it would make for a very entertaining weekend marathon.

• Posted at 1:17 PM · LINK

Today's Political Rant

Jeremy Waite wrote to ask, "If you don't like people saying that someone 'won' a Presidential Debate, what term would you use?" I'd say that someone helped or hurt their candidacy...and the measure of that doesn't necessarily have to translate into a significant swing in the polls in the days following. Kerry reportedly received a huge boost in campaign contributions immediately following the debate so that alone helps him. I think he also got a lot of folks across America to say, "Hmm...he looks and talks like a president." A lot of potential voters have probably known him to some extent as the caricature painted by Cheney speeches, Bush advertising and Swift Boat Veteran fibs. I would think that a number of those folks are now more receptive to the notion that there's more to John Kerry than they thought.

Mostly, I think it's a matter of momentum. A very large number of people are not going to switch their allegiance even if their candidate shows up at the debate in drag...but some of those people might get less enthused about making it to the polls on Election Day. Another chunk of the electorate is soft in their selection. This is probably a very small group but it might be able to swing a couple of states.

The portrait of Bush on Thursday night was not flattering. If it becomes the popular perception of the man, he'll probably lose. The reason many Democrats are enthused at the moment is that they think that's the real Bush and the nation is finally beginning to see that. The reason many Republicans aren't worried is that they either think it wasn't the real Bush or that, in their hearts, the American people would still rather have that guy than someone who would bring Kerry's values to the White House.

I don't think we have any real post-debate polls yet. When we do, I wouldn't expect them to reflect any real gain for Kerry. I think Bush is going to have to stumble at least one more time before the caricature of him — uninformed, less than honest, too stubborn to change course when something isn't working — will translate into states swinging away from him.

• Posted at 12:57 PM · LINK

What I Did This Morning

Just fixed the link on the Frank Rich article (sorry) and added a bit of additional info to my new page about Space Mouse. A fine way to start the day.

• Posted at 9:42 AM · LINK

Late Late, Late Show News

Three different folks have written to tip me off to the name of the person who, they say, has been quietly signed to host The Late, Late Show (i.e., the 12:35 show that follows Letterman). All three asked me not to mention the name here, so I won't. But I don't think it would be violating their request if I say that the identity of the alleged new host appears in this New York Times article by Bill Carter.

Carter mentions that Stephen Colbert of The Daily Show turned down the job. Colbert is easily one of the three funniest people seen regularly on my TV these days, but I think he's better suited to what he's already doing. (I think he also has a pilot for another show lurking at one of the networks...)

• Posted at 1:36 AM · LINK

Secrets of the Comics

My pal Lou Mougin is not the first person to write me and ask...

I remember, and have on scans, some of the Space Mouse comics from Dell in the early sixties. Problem was, even though it was copyright by Walter Lantz, I never saw a Space Mouse cartoon on TV. Did the character ever appear in a cartoon, or was it just something Lantz wanted to try for the comic books?

And since Lou is the third or fourth person to ask this — and because I may be the only human being alive who knows the answer — I've decided to answer it over in the section of this site called Incessantly-Asked Questions. Here's the straight skinny.

• Posted at 12:20 AM · LINK

October 1, 2004 • Current • October 3, 2004