Sunday, August 17, 2008

Poll Dancing

Every few days from now 'til the election, I'm going to be reminding you — as a way of reminding myself — that polls are nowhere near as reliable as we often wish they were. The time to remember that is not when your guy is a little behind. It's when he's a little ahead that you have to remember that.

This does not mean the polls are meaningless. I think it's safe to say that Obama's going to win California and McCain's going to take Utah...but states where the candidates are within ten points of each other are probably best viewed as toss-ups. You can especially use up a lot of stomach lining between now and November 6 if you watch the states where they're three points apart switch back and forth, back and forth.

There are countless examples that could be cited of pollsters getting a vote wrong. The one I like to dredge up is pollster John Zogby calling the New York Senate race of 2000. The day before, he said it was dead even and announced, "I think we're looking at a one point race." The next day, Hillary Clinton beat her opponent 56%-44%.

That's not even close...and in a poll taken 48 hours before the election. How accurate do we think polls are this far in advance? Pollsters never seem to brag a lot about how well they called an election 2-3 months before it occurs. If they have anything to boast about, it's how close they got with their final pollings, the ones taken a day or two before.

All that said, I notice that Rasmussen, which usually skews a bit Republican, now has Al Franken and Norm Coleman tied in the Minnesota senate race. A month ago, Rasmussen gave Coleman a nine point lead and some other polls still have that kind of spread. Did Franken come up? Did Coleman go down? Was the poll just plain inaccurate a month ago? Is it inaccurate now? Who knows? At the moment, the presidential race feels like Obama has a small but sufficient lead...but between now and Election Day, we still have the naming of the running mates, the political conventions, the debates, a lot of advertising and endorsements, and big question marks of what will happen in many foreign locales...plus, you can count on Obama and McCain each saying a couple of really, really stupid things that will be blown all out of proportion and put each on the defensive for a time.

Oh, yeah. And after the votes are in and counted, we're going to hear that the winner "stole" the election and that it was all rigged. So we may not even know then.

• Posted at 7:45 PM · LINK

Head Master

Here is the greatest public service I've ever seen available on the Internet.

The makers of Imodium, a medicine that's supposed to cure Diarrhea, have a "map search" function over on their website. It doesn't show you where you can purchase Imodium. It shows you where to find a public restroom near you.

I especially like the little legal disclaimer on the page...

The content included in the Bathroom Finder is for informational purposes only. You agree you will not distribute, publish, transmit, modify, display or create derivative works from or exploit the contents of the Bathroom Finder in any way. The information on Bathroom Finder is provided through third parties and may contain inaccuracies and typographical errors. McNeil-PPC, Inc. makes no representation or warranties regarding the accuracy, quality, credibility, or suitability of the information or bathroom, which is provided "as is." McNeil-PPC, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information obtained through the Bathroom Finder.

Wouldn't you have loved to hear the meeting where they decided they needed that? "You know, I'm all for telling people with Diarrhea where the bathrooms are...but what if they go to the locations we give them and there's no bathroom there or it's unsuitable? They might sue us!"

While you're on their site, by the way, you might want to print out a coupon. The way this election is going, you may need it.

• Posted at 7:19 PM · LINK

Your Sunday Cat Report

That's another photo of Max, an extremely large pussycat I've mentioned here before. Max and his mate have taken up near-permanent residence in my backyard. He takes pretty good care of her. Last week, I had to take pretty good care of Max.

I came home, weary from a long day of running-around. I wanted to fall into bed but knew that I needed to finish a script. I wound up doing neither right away. On the way in, I pet Max and found blood on my hand. Max had a deep gash running along his side. It was not only bleeding, it was dirty and infested with ants and other insects.

He didn't seem to be in pain but that's not something that can be ignored. I picked him up (not easy to do) and stuffed him into the infamous trap that I once used to capture another feral friend...in that case, for neutering purposes. Then I drove Max over to Sepulveda Boulevard, where there are a couple of 24-hour veterinary clinics who specialize in charging you an awful lot of money when your pet is ill or injured after normal working hours. I have been there before with strays and it would be cheaper to take an animal to the Mayo Clinic, except that it's too far.

The folks at the place of Sepulveda were quite nice and since it wasn't really "my cat," they didn't charge me the full fee, which would have been roughly the amount of money that Ed McMahon owes. The lady at the desk seemed suspicious that the discount was warranted, saying things like, "Gee, strays are usually so scrawny and he's obviously very well fed." But the vet insisted I get the feral discount. Most bleeding had stopped so they cleaned Max's wound, put in a few stitches and gave him some sort of antibiotic. The vet's assistant theorized that Max had tried to squeeze through a fence and gotten impaled on something.

On their advice, I kept Max in the cage/trap in my garage for the next day or so. He was not happy in there — it made for cramped quarters, him being the size of a Honda Civic — but I think he understood. He's out now, back on all four feet, and he seems to be healing nicely. The experience did not affect his appetite, which is insatiable but does not allow him to eat any food that's been in the dish for over five minutes, even the dry stuff.

And that's the latest on the homeless shelter in my backyard...where last week, I set a new record: I was feeding five stray cats simultaneously. Years ago, I was a partner in a restaurant in Hollywood and I don't think we ever had that much consumption occurring at one time on the premises. Maybe we should have served Friskies Salmon Dinner.

• Posted at 12:51 AM · LINK

Today's Video Link

Someone took one of those "piano roll" recordings of George Gershwin playing "Rhapsody in Blue" and created a montage of New York photos to go with it. Nicely done. It's thirteen and a half minutes in two parts which should play one after the other in the player I've embedded below...

• Posted at 12:22 AM · LINK