Saturday, October 18, 2008

Men Behaving Bradley

I just surveyed five different sites that chart the electoral votes based on the polls. It's scary, in a way, how well Barack Obama is doing.

If John McCain won every state where he's currently ahead...and he won every state where they're tied...and he won every state where Obama is less than 5% ahead of him...John McCain would still lose the presidency. "Not to worry," some McCain boosters say. "There's still The Bradley Effect."

The Bradley Effect? What the heck is that? Oh...it's something most of us never heard of before some folks needed a way to explain why Obama didn't have a lock on the election. Put simply, it's the theory that some people, afraid of appearing racist to a pollster, will say they're going to vote for the black guy but they're really going to vote for the white guy.

I don't believe it for uno minuto. For one thing, it's just a theory. There haven't been many studies on it and probably none lately. Racial attitudes in this country may have just changed a tad since the 1982 California gubernatorial election in which L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley, despite a lead in the polls, lost to a man named George Deukmejian. So even if the phenomenon was valid then — which I doubt — there's no reason to assume it's still operative 26 years later.

Maybe Bradley lost that election because some Californians couldn't bring themselves to vote for a person of color...but maybe he lost because a lot of people woke up when they got into the voting booth and realized they couldn't vote for a guy who, on balance, wasn't that good a mayor. I met Tom Bradley on a few occasions and even wrote a speech for him once when he spoke before the National Cartoonists Society. He was a very nice, genial man but in his two decades as chief exec of Los Angeles, I can't think of one thing he did to distinguish himself. That address to the cartoonists may have been it.

It's also worth noting that he ran twice for governor. The first time, in '82, the polls had him ahead but he lost on Election Night by a very narrow margin. The second time, he was never ahead in the polls and he wound up being crushed by almost a two-to-one ratio.

Point being, Bradley just wasn't that popular. It's not puzzling that he lost...only that the polls were off one time. Polls are sometimes faulty, especially on the state and local levels where there aren't that many of them. I find that explanation more credible than the concept that folks tell pollsters they're voting for a black man and then when they arrive at their polling places, they suddenly turn into Jesse Helms. I think for the most part, if race matters to you, you know it. And you can always tell the pollster that you're voting for the paler of the candidates because you like his health plan better.

Yeah, maybe someone somewhere who says they're going to vote Obama will succumb to latent racism and go the other way. It's also possible that someone who says they're going to vote McCain will have an anti-senior moment, give in to latent ageism and decide they can't vote for a 72 year old man. Or in a jolt of sexism, they'll realize they can't put a woman the proverbial heartbeat away from the Oval Office. It's all possible but not probable.

Obama may lose and he may even lose because of racism if the last weeks of the campaign fan those flames. There are other possible reasons, as well, including the fact that polls aren't dead-on accurate. Four years ago, most of the late polling had John Kerry 2-3% ahead of Bush...which should remind us that election day results can shift that much with two Caucasians competing. If they shift that much for Obama-McCain, watch everyone forget that and cite this silly Bradley Effect as the reason.

• Posted at 11:36 PM · LINK

Levi Stubbs, R.I.P.

I have nothing to say about the passing of Levi Stubbs, lead vocalist of the Four Tops, other than that I sure liked everything I ever heard him sing. Even this Pepsi commercial...

• Posted at 12:06 PM · LINK

Today's Video Link

You probably won't want to watch all of this — it runs close to a half-hour — but you might enjoy a few minutes of a 1968 "educational" (propaganda) film done for the Los Angeles Rapid Transit District. The early part features Paul Lynde in what was not one of his funniest roles. Most of the film features (and was probably at least co-written by) Ralph Story, who was a prominent L.A. TV host and occasional newsman back then. Mr. Story was a clever, folksy gent who usually appeared in more interesting shows than this...but it's fascinating to see a lot of the arguments then being advanced for public transportation. Some are ridiculous but some were prescient...and unheeded.

• Posted at 12:37 AM · LINK

This...is an Ex-Musical

The Monty Python musical Spamalot will close on Broadway on January 18, 2009 after its 1,582nd performance...a very nice run, indeed. As a point of comparison, that's more than Mame, The Sound of Music, The Music Man, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying and a number of other musicals that are regarded as classic hits. The national touring company has bookings scheduled through the early months of the year and then it too will probably close down.

If you haven't seen a production of this thing on stage, you might want to hurry to one. I'm sure it'll be around forever in college and community theater...but it'll be a long time before anyone stages it with a Broadway budget and (probably) that level of talent. Like Young Frankenstein (which is scheduled to go on tour beginning in the second half of '09), the money is part of the show. It'll be interesting to see how various groups mount Spamalot without a lot of cash, and it wouldn't surprise me if ingenuity could more than make up for spartan costumes and sets. But you oughta see it in all its lavish glory while that's still an option.

• Posted at 12:36 AM · LINK

October 19, 2008 • Current • October 17, 2008