As we warned you, the Comic-Con International in San Diego is sold out. All tix gone. Zip. Empty. None available at the door. Don't bother asking. This kind of thing will happen next year, too...so don't be shocked when it does and you didn't get around to signing up.
I will be on, hosting or co-hosting fourteen (14) panels. The official schedule won't be up for at least a month but my "to do" list will include all your old faves — Quick Draw, Jack Kirby panel, Golden Age panel, Sergio/Mark panel, etc. There'll be two big panels featuring Cartoon Voice Actors and this year, all but one or two of the participants will be new to our dais. We'll also do a sequel to last year's well-attended panel about the business end of Cartoon Voice Work — how to get an agent, how to prepare a demo, how not to get ripped off by predatory "teachers," etc. There'll be one-on-one "spotlight" interviews with veteran comic artists like Gene Colan. There'll be individual spotlights also turned on great performers like Stan Freberg and June Foray. I'm especially excited about a planned panel that will gather together the three main "Bob Kane" ghosts who drew Batman in the forties and fifties. Oughta be fun and memorable.
I'm told hotel rooms in San Diego are still possible to get if you do a little digging and don't insist on sleeping too close to the action. When we get closer to the event, I'll try and link to info on how to use the city's fine trolley system to get from where you stay to where it's all happening. That will be for those of you who won't be able to use the convention's very efficient bus shuttle line which stops at many hotels. The one thing you don't want to rely on is getting a parking space at or around the convention center. Last year, the fine voice actor Rob Paulsen was supposed to be on our Sunday panel of folks who do what he does for a living. Five minutes before, he phoned me with sadness and exasperation in his famous voice to tell me he'd been driving around for an hour and couldn't find a place to put his car. If it can happen to Mr. Opportunity, it can happen to anyone.
Many a fan writes to tell me that they've never been to this thing and are scared off when they hear of lines the length of the Ganges, a dearth of parking, the nearest hotel rooms being in Guadalajara, etc. Don't be. First of all, those problems only exist because so many people have a great time at the con and find any inconvenience more than worth it. Secondly, tens of thousands who attend find little to complain about. If you do a little advance planning, it can be a breeze and a half. Thirdly, even those who bitch long and loud don't usually mean it the way it sounds. I have a small group of friends who every year denounce the crowds and the parking and the lines and the costumes and the price of a Diet Snapple...and the point is they do this every year. None of it stops them from attending.
If you aren't signed up for this year, it's probably too late. But as the Oakland Athletics say, there's always next year. Or the year after or the year after...
Jacques Brel was a popular singer-songwriter of Belgian heritage. He wrote dozens of marvelous songs which have been recorded by others and also arranged into revues and stage productions. When it comes time to select a single Brel song to perform, the rule seems to be that you look them all over, consider each and every one...
...and then you sing "Madeleine." It ain't a bad song and it certainly isn't his worst...but it's the one everyone picks, especially for a group. Here's a rather typical arrangement of it as staged on the 1969 TV series, What's It All About, World? The singers are Eve Arden, Lorene Yarnell (of Shields & Yarnell) and Kathy Gale.
What's It All About, World? was an odd program. At the time, Laugh-In and The Smothers Brothers were two big hits. Today, the politics of those shows seem about as radical as a "Make Love, Not War" bumper sticker on a Prius, and large chunks of what they aired seem like clown acts. But in '69, with the Vietnam War raging and everything else that was going on in this country, there were those who denounced the knock-knock jokes on those shows as Communist, Marxist, Stalinist and inarguably destructive to the American way of life. I'm sure glad no one hurls those labels at their political foes these days.
Among those who felt that way were a couple of men who owned ABC-affiliated stations. They practically demanded that the network give them a variety show that would celebrate their idea of American Values. The network responded with What's It All About, World? and there's a reason most of you don't remember it. It was because of this show that I formulated my occasionally-quoted axiom that trying to do comedy from a Conservative point-of-view is like trying to write a Marx Brothers movie and make Margaret Dumont the funny one. It ain't impossible but it sure doesn't come naturally.
This number isn't political or anything. It's just odd...and indicative of the legacy of Jacques Brel. That legacy, as I said, is that people neglect his vast repertoire of work and only sing "Madeleine." Here are three ladies only singing "Madeleine"...
Frank Rich thinks Dick Cheney is just trying to position the national debate so that if there is any sort of future attack on America, his side can get maximum impact from blaming the current administration. I think that's so but I also still think Cheney is trying to rally his followers around him should he be indicted.
Okay, here's my fearless prediction about what's going to happen with the reconfiguration of the NBC schedule with Leno and O'Brien and those two guys who come after them. I think it's easiest to divide the prediction up into stages because that's how this thing's going to roll out.
Stage One starts Monday when Conan takes over The Tonight Show. I've found Conan disappointing the last year or two. I can't think of a single new, innovative thing he's done to equal his earlier achievements. There have been nights when he comes out and does what's largely a medley of catch phrases — "Be cool, my babies" and the string dance and a lot of mugging and such. That's great for the studio audience, boring at home. I'm assuming, based on his past track record, he and his crew will rise to the occasion, dump all that needs to be dumped and do an exciting, fresh program. I hear his test shows have been great and his set is spectacular and his mood, with the new gig and Andy Richter back on the premises, is reborn.
My guess is Conan will do very well during Stage One...and of course, that's self-perpetuating for a while. When your show is hot, the hot guests flock to it and that keeps you warm.
Stage Two starts in the Fall when The Jay Leno Show debuts at 10 PM. I think it'll do well the first few nights, a little less well the second few nights, a little less well after that and so on. ABC and CBS will be throwing stunts and heavyweight programming against it and The Jay Leno Show will not feel like "must see TV" with that competition. It'll be like, "We can watch Jay some other time" and much of America will not want to miss the big event on CSI Muncie or whatever's against him. Having Jay on will also diminish Conan somewhat. The best guests will be split between two shows instead of them all being on Tonight.
There are times when you can almost feel the press and competitors chomping to declare failure and I smell schadenfreude in the air — folks who've never liked Jay, those who've been enjoying NBC's decline, etc. Within the industry, there are many who resent that Leno is occupying five hours of network prime time that, they think, would otherwise have gone to shows from which they could have financial or career benefits. The minute it can be said, it will be said that the Leno Prime Time Experiment is a disaster. I don't think it will be but I expect we'll hear that, just as breathessly as we once heard that going with Jay over Dave was the biggest bonehead mistake a network had ever made and The Tonight Show would never be Number One again under Leno. What could make it a genuine flop is if affiliates believe that and defect...or threaten it in sufficient numbers.
We've already seen the NBC station in Boston declare they were going to stick an hour of local news in at 10 PM in place of the new Leno offering. The parent network went to work, applied pressure and got Boston on board...for now. But what if The Jay Leno Show performs below expectations in its first months? Or what if it's doing okay but too many of its viewers take its closing credits as a signal that it's time to go beddy-bye? That would not only hurt Conan further but cause many local NBC stations to consider doing what Boston wanted to do or, more likely, bumping Jay to 10:35 and putting their 11 PM local news on at ten. Local news is a key source of revenue for most stations and if a lot of NBC affiliates see a drop-off, the game will become whether the net can keep them from going rogue.
NBC knows this, thinks they can prevent it...and probably can. Since his last show, Conan has been visiting affiliates, shaking hands, taping promos, building their rooting interest. Between now and the time his new show debuts, Jay will be doing a lot of that. He'll also have this going for him: Even if it finishes second or third in its time slot, his show will probably be quite profitable for NBC. Even giving him a Lamborghini full of money every week, the network stands to make a ton because his program will be so much cheaper than the usual 10 PM film show. They can afford to pass some of those bucks on to the affiliates in various ways and to spend a fortune on promotion and advertising. They have too much riding on this not to. Still, both shows could have a rough period between the time Jay goes on and the point where we get to Stage Three...
I don't know exactly when Stage Three will kick in but it will be when his competition becomes primarily reruns. CBS and ABC may work hard to delay it but at some point, the math of prime time license fees demands that they program repeats against Leno...and that's when Jay with his new shows will have a big advantage.
Back in the Paleolithic era of television, reruns did as well or almost as well as new programming. But in the era of VCRs and TiVos and dozens of other channels on cable, that doesn't happen. For some reason, whether a show feels old is more significant than whether people can recall seeing it before. That's why Jay and Dave both do fewer reruns than Johnny did...and why they select them from a few weeks back, instead of (as J. Carson did) a year earlier. Jay will get a boost when he has new shows opposite reruns at 10 PM and that, I think, is when the success of the new venture will be realized.
Leno will do well enough then to make up for any weakness in the early months of the experiment. Conan will regain enough ground that he'll be secure. The guys I think are going to suffer are Carson Daly and, to a lesser extent, Jimmy Fallon.
You may not know who Carson Daly is but he hosts a stealth talk show. It's on NBC right after Late Night With Jimmy Fallon...or at least, I think it is. I haven't checked lately and from what I can tell, neither has anyone else. He stays on, year after year, because he shows a modest profit and doesn't cause problems. It's an unimportant time slot with nothing to support. Leno's new venture will not be a true talk show but it'll have the look and feel of one...and I can't help but think that Daly's will come to be one talk show too many, especially if NBC's rerunning Jay's show in the early A.M. (I suspect that's under discussion. It would be a lot more entertaining than the televised poker they have there now. Then again, watching my mother apply salve to her psoriasis is more entertaining than televised poker.) Maybe they'll try switching Daly to cable but I think his show's going to go away...and if and when it does, I think Jimmy Fallon will turn into Carson Daly.
I like Fallon as a performer but I can't watch his new series. I try every week or three but they still look like test shows to me. He has little rapport with his guests, not a lot of commanding presence as a host...and if you ever want to make sure I turn off your show, just bring studio audience members down and ask them to lick things in exchange for a ten dollar bill. Chuck Barris would be embarrassed to put that on television.
He's getting decent numbers but he's also not showing great strength. Craig Ferguson on CBS occasionally beats him and does it without the benefit of as strong a show on before him. Ferguson has a following...Fallon has a lead-in. NBC may be too busy fighting for Jay and Conan to pay much attention to Fallon and it'll probably be easier to just leave him on as long as he shows a profit, the way they've left Carson Daly on. (Fallon's show is also a Lorne Michaels project and the last thing anyone at NBC wants to do is displease Lorne Michaels.) I don't think he's going away but I also can't imagine him being very important...not the way Dave or Conan were once important in that time slot.
Speaking of Dave: I don't think any of what happens on NBC will affect him much. He might lose some share to Conan for a few weeks as viewers see what the The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien is like but it'll all settle back to the old levels. I don't imagine anything that happens on NBC is going to make a lot of difference in his life. Or Jimmy Kimmel's. They're more likely to be impacted if someone new gets into the mix...like if Fox hired away Jon Stewart and gave him an hour at 11 PM, that would be a Brand New Ball Game for everyone.
As you might have sensed, I don't have gobs of confidence in any of this. The waters here are just too uncharted. Still, it does seem to me that those who are predicting disaster for Leno at 10 PM are underestimating, as onlookers so often have, Leno's popularity...and also the value of counterprogramming new comedy shows against rerun cop shows. Some are also saying that the lineup of Jay/Conan/Jimmy/Carson will be just too many programs that cover much the same ground. I think that's true but that the weakness will show at the end of the parlay, not at the beginning.
Anyway, if I had to bet, that's how I'd bet: Stage one, Conan does great. Stage two, Leno debuts strong but soon drops off and maybe drags Conan down with him. Stage three, both shows rebuild to the point where the whole idea of Jay at ten, Monday through Friday, starts to look like a smart move. Dave and Jimmy are unchanged. Carson Daly goes away. And Fallon hangs in there with one of those shows that no one watches but somehow it just stays on.
Let's see if I'm even vaguely close to right. A few years ago, I wouldn't have stuck my neck out with a prediction like this but I've been watching pundits on cable news. There's no longer any penalty in this world for getting everything wrong. And at least if I'm wrong, I'll be wrong about something pretty inconsequential.
The Los Angeles Times is now, like most newspapers, in a certain amount of business trouble. But fifty years ago, that company published not one but two papers. The L.A. Times came out in the morning and then they had an afternoon paper called The Los Angeles Mirror.
June 1, 2009
