Thursday, January 21, 2010

Recommended Reading

There's a theory out there that if you cut folks' taxes, they'll spend more and thereby stimulate the economy. That hasn't worked as well as its advocates like to pretend. James Surowiecki says that Barack Obama may have come up with a way to make that theory work. You cut Americans' taxes but don't tell them.

• Posted at 1:08 PM · LINK

Buyer Be Wary

I love the magazine and institution, Consumer Reports, though I often forget to check their site before I buy. I'm a subscriber there and I forget. I also forget to recommend them to you because even a non-subscriber can get plenty of info over there. They continue to do what they've always done, which is to purchase products — they do not accept freebees or review samples — and test them and report. They are often blunt to the point of telling you not to buy some safe-sounding brand name about which you might otherwise say, "Oh, that's a well-known company...how bad can their product be?"

In truth, when they review an item with which I'm familiar, their observations do not always coincide with mine. But I always learn from their reports and an informed me is a better me. The last two times I bought a new car, their advice just in that department saved me more loot than I will ever spend on subscriptions to Consumer Reports.

They have a great piece up right now and I think you can all access it. They reviewed fifteen products usually sold with impulse TV ads and informercials — the Slap Chop, the Snuggie, the Magic Jack, the ShamWow, etc. Most did not fare well in their trials but a few did. Read all about 'em right here...and don't forget to bookmark the whole site and consult it when you make a purchase.

• Posted at 12:38 PM · LINK

Morning Report on Late Night

Deals are being announced today. Conan gets a big settlement and will be free to go off and do another show as of September. Jay goes back to The Tonight Show right after the Olympics. NBC is saying that even with paying off O'Brien and his crew, they'll make more money with Jay there. That may well be true...and the fact that NBC believes that is pretty much what all this has been about. They didn't decide to bump Conan from 11:35 because they thought his hair was too frightening before Midnight.

And it isn't just NBC Corporate that anticipates more $$$ this way. Based on what NBC execs are saying (and to some extent on what they're not saying), various of their affiliates were clearly poised to change the schedule if the parent network didn't. Jeff Gaspin, the Chairman of NBC's parent corporation said in one interview that perhaps a third were poised to do some heavy rearranging. He didn't say what they would have done but presumably some were going to bump Leno altogether for other programming while others were going to slot him after their local news, thereby approximating the old configuration that had worked better for them. In some markets, Conan would probably have been shoved back to his old time slot.

A third is a pretty high, unprecedented fraction for a threat of this sort and NBC must have figured it would get higher. Some of those stations would surely have increased revenues and others would have quickly followed those stations' lead. My guess is that Gaspin and Jeff Zucker are sincere and probably even honest when they say that their schedule — Leno at 10, O'Brien at 11:35 — was working for the network, maybe even close to expectations. They surely wished both guys' numbers were higher but NBC could have lived with what they were getting. They could have waited to see if and when things might improve.

The more astute among you may notice a subtle contradiction here. They wished they could have stuck with their plan but the new one will make them more money.

In the up-is-down, down-is-up world of network television, this all may be true. Before Leno was saying (and saying and saying) that NBC stands for "Never Believe your Contract," folks were saying it stood for Nothing But Cash. Even when these guys screw-up, they often make staggering sums of money. All over the Internet, folks are asking, "How does Jeff Zucker keep his job?" And the answer to that is probably found in bottom lines on balance sheets. Even if Zucker has destroyed their prime-time and late-night schedules — and the blame there may not all be his — those are not the only areas in which the corporation gains revenue. He apparently has performed well in some of the others...and like the man said, they may still show a decent profit in late night, albeit less than they'd hoped.

As even Mr. Letterman has noted, this is all about money. Pretty much everything done in network television is, and absolutely no one in this whole soap opera has made a move in order to take a pay cut. Every decision — the network's, Jay's, Conan's, everyone's — has been done with the intent of drastically improving income. Even the other hosts attacking Leno these days must think it's good for business. Jay, let's remember, is about to become a competitor again.

But there's also a lot of fighting to save face going on here, a campaign to not be blamed for mistakes. As we said the other day here, a lot of 'em — not just one, not just two — were made. It remains to be seen precisely which moves they were and we're in for a lot of spinning and damage control in that regard. On with Charlie Rose the other night, Mr. Zucker was arguing that the deal that took The Tonight Show from Jay and gave it to Conan (i.e., the guy they just took it away from) was not a mistake because it kept Conan at NBC, kept him from competing, kept the profitable Leno/O'Brien tag team intact and generating cash for five more years. Losing Conan then, he said, would have been a mistake.

So let's review. Killing The Tonight Show with Jay Leno was a wise move because it kept Conan around for five more years and during that time, he wasn't on Fox or ABC competing with Jay.

And putting on The Jay Leno Show at 10 was a wise move because it kept Jay around and he didn't go on Fox or ABC and compete with Conan.

And now, killing The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien was a wise move because they have Jay available to replace it and he'll do better there.

I'm not saying the above is completely wrong, at least not if you care only about short-term profits, which is sometimes all the industry does care about. Zucker may well have had an insoluble problem back when O'Brien's people said, in effect, "Conan gets 11:35 or he walks." When you have two trains and one track, you're probably going to have a train wreck, no matter what. All the machinations and rearrangements have stemmed from that premise and they've been maddening for Leno and O'Brien and all who work for them or love their shows. They haven't done a lot for the image of NBC or the proud heritage of its late night schedule, either. You and I might care about those things...but we don't run big networks.

"At the end of the day," as people say on cable news shows every three minutes, a lot of people at NBC will probably be quite satisfied with how it all turns out. Because they delayed the train wreck for five very profitable years...and they're still making money. And that's really all this is about. That and not getting blamed for mistakes.

• Posted at 11:24 AM · LINK

Today's Video Link

Since we've been talking about Jack Benny here, here's a memorable clip from a 1955 episode of his TV show. Groucho Marx was then doing his game show, You Bet Your Life, and he went on the Benny program to do this sketch. Jack has disguised himself to get on the quiz show and maybe win some money and...well, you'll see...

• Posted at 12:28 AM · LINK

Go Read It!

Bob Elisberg, usually seen over on The Huffington Post, wraps up the Consumer Electronics Show for the Writers Guild's website.

• Posted at 12:27 AM · LINK

Recommended Reading

My man Fred Kaplan thinks that the loss of that 60th vote in the Senate may cause Barack Obama to pay more attention to other countries and less to this one.

• Posted at 12:06 AM · LINK