Election Day looms before us and many voices are warning us that it could be many days after November 3 that we know who won. Well, maybe. It has a lot to do with how long it takes certain states to count their ballots and announce the totals. If the states where Trump is expected to do well report in first, he could well take an early lead. There could also be court challenges and other matters that challenge or halt the counting. There could be recounts.
On the other hand, there are a lot of "must win" states for Trump like Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania. Presently, the forecast by The Economist gives Biden a 67% chance of carrying Arizona, a 78% chance of carrying Florida and a 90% chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Nate Silver's 538 site, using a different model, pegs those numbers at 68%, 72% and 86%…not that far off. If/when one of those three states reports a Biden victory, it's just about over for Donald. Watch this video and see how a member of Mr. Silver's squadron explains it…