Dispatches From the Fortress – Day 234

It's Halloween…at least on the calendar. I won't repost my annual "I've never liked Halloween" post (it's here if you must read it) but I'm fine without that holiday in my year. I've had no trick-or-treaters in my neighborhood for over a decade and would expect zero tonight even if Halloween hadn't been more or less called-off.

And I have nothing to say about the late Sean Connery that a zillion other folks aren't saying on the web today. Loved the James Bond movies he was in…liked a few of his other screen appearances. Lost a lot of respect for him when he began talking about how women should be slapped around. That's about it.

The election projections over at The Economist have been fluctuating between Trump having a 4% chance of winning and then for about half a day, a 7% chance. When he hit 7, of course I thought, "Oh no! He's gaining a point a day! By Tuesday, he might be up to 11%!" Nate Silver's site had him at 11% for a long time and currently has him down to 10. The Economist currently has him back down to 4%. (These are the odds of him winning, not the percentage of the vote he'll get.)

Can he still win? Sure. But right now Joe Biden's in about as good a position as you could hope your guy would be in the Saturday before Election Day.

As I understand it, the legal theory Trump and his crew are going to push on Election Day is that in each state, they should count ballots until such time as Trump is ahead and then stop counting, disqualify the rest and then award him the state.

Rudy Giuliani is running around screaming (literally) that the press is covering for Joe Biden by not reporting on the "new" Hunter Biden revelations but as Kevin Drum notes, the press has been trying to and has been blocked by, among other obstacles, Rudy Giuliani. He's not letting them look too closely at what he claims to have unearthed. Reporters simply cannot see enough of the so-called evidence to determine if there's any "there" there…and at worst, none of it seems to implicate the person actually running for president. It's kind of a non-smoking smoking gun loaded with blanks and pointed at the wrong target.