I would like to slightly amend my previous pessimism that we're ever going the change gun laws in this country. I said there that the only thing I could imagine that might spur some action would be the emergence of some brave, charismatic leader to champion Gun Control…and by the way, I don't think that person could be Barack Obama or anyone thought of as a liberal partisan. It would have to be someone who could "win" without it being a "win" for the Democrats.
But it occurs to me there's a more likely (sadly) scenario that could get a Gun Control bill passed: More shootings.
Let's say the tragedy in Newtown now has 75% of the country thinking something needs to be done. That's probably high but let's say it's that. A week after all the funerals, it'll be 65% and a month later, 55%. 55% ain't gonna do it. It would take a steadier stream to the point where people were genuinely worried that sooner or later, someone would go crazy with an AK-47 in their vicinity.
Even then — here comes more pessimism — what law would they pass? It would be a token effort…something about more background checks and about how you can't buy a clip that holds 100 rounds of ammo. You'd have to buy two fifties. New York Mayor Bloomberg is in favor of Gun Control. He's the guy who thought he was making a dent in the problem of people drinking too much Pepsi by making them buy two Mediums instead of one Large.
Right now, the folks calling for Gun Control strike me as being not unlike the folks yelling to "repeal and replace" Obamacare. Okay, so show us the proposal. Draw up a rough summary of what you would do, get some experts to sign off on it and put it online as a PDF for much of the country to read and rally behind. That would be a starting point for a real change as opposed to something cosmetic. But I don't even expect that to happen. Not even if we have one Newtown a month.