Today's Political Comment

Myra Adams offers the interesting (and to some, surely infuriating) theory that Democrats these days go into each presidential election with a simple advantage: A near-lock on 246 of the 270 electoral votes it takes to win.

There's some truth to that though it may be difficult to remember when you have guys on Fox News running around, building up the hopes of those who believe Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ, predicting a 325 electoral landslide for Mitt Romney. That was never in this world going to happen. Even if Romney had won, it would have been more like the margins of George W. Bush. In his two elections, let's remember, he did not get landslides like Dick Morris predicted for Mitt. Al Gore got 266 electoral votes and John Kerry got 251. The last Democrat who got less than 240 was Michael Dukakis, way back when it was possible for a Republican to win California and Pennsylvania. Nowadays, the G.O.P. doesn't even waste money buying commercial time in California.

So Democrats start with these 246 votes. Republicans don't start with a guarantee of the other 292. Second time at bat, Obama won 332 and a lot of the states beyond 246 weren't close. For example, the 246 doesn't include Virginia, which Obama won by three points or Colorado, which he won by close to five. If the 2016 Democratic nominee wins the 246 plus Virginia and Colorado, the rest of the country doesn't matter. That's over 270.

How big is the Republican "lock?" Adams doesn't suggest one but I'm going to guess 188. Romney won that many in states where he won by wide margins and he also won South Dakota's three electoral votes by two points and North Carolina's 15 electoral votes by three.

I'm not pointing this out to tweak Republicans. I think the landscape favors them in the House and they have a good position in the Senate. But they sure are acting like they know the only way they're going to have a shot at the presidency in the next decade or two is to control who gets to vote. Or to pray the Democrats nominate Anthony Weiner.