And Now, Dave's Retiring

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Details are sketchy about David Letterman's announced retirement in 2015 so I thought I'd get an early jump on the speculation to come. Can't wait to see how CNN will tie this in with the missing Malaysian plane.

Why is Dave quitting? Well, first of all, is he quitting? His ratings versus Fallon and Kimmel have not been great. He's generally been finishing second in total viewers, third in the 18-49 bracket. It's not hard to imagine him losing both contests soon but it is hard to imagine anything reversing the trend. America has long since decided how much they feel like watching Dave at night and the new, younger viewers are not drawn to him. So that's a decent reason to retire but it's also a fine reason for CBS to suggest that strongly. My guess would be it's both. And someone probably feels that Dave's only real chance of getting his numbers up at all is a year of "farewell" shows, trotting out the best guests and reprising the best bits.

Then again, it's important to remember that the reasons for a decision like this may not all be visible to us. Maybe it's just Dave's mood or Dave's family or Dave's health. When someone leaves a great job, it's kind of a cliché for them to say they weren't fired; that they resigned on their own accord to "spend more time with the family." That usually means they were fired…but not always.

Who's going to replace him? Beats me. If I were CBS, I'd send a Dodge Viper filled with cash to Stephen Colbert's door to see if he's ready to abandon his Comedy Central show and the character he plays on it. But I don't think it'll be Colbert. I think they're going to want someone fresher…and it wouldn't surprise me if it was someone more skilled at Social Media and YouTube than delivering a great monologue.

I don't think it'll be Craig Ferguson. Some reports say Ferguson has (or had) a succession deal in place while some say otherwise. If he had a deal guaranteeing him the time slot, I assume CBS will exercise some sort of escape clause. Ferguson didn't do well against Fallon at 12:35. Why would he be competitive at 11:35?

(I'm still a big fan of Mr. Ferguson, by the way, even though I rarely watch his show. I think he's one of the brightest, quickest humans on television and when he's really interested in a guest, a better interviewer than any of his competitors unless you count Jon Stewart. But lately, Ferguson has been trending in the same direction via which Conan O'Brien lost me: Too much mugging and dancing and making the show about how much he can make the studio audience love him. I've given up O'Brien because he seems way more interested in topping his guests and talking about himself than he is in helping them to score. Craig is drifting the same way.)

(One more aside before I get back to Dave: For April Fools Day, Ferguson and Drew Carey traded jobs. Carey hosted The Late, Late Show and Ferguson hosted The Price is Right. Neither did that well but Carey did better with his assignment than Ferguson did with his. I don't think Craig knew how to split the difference between getting laughs and running a game. You can't be too silly on a game show since you don't want to interfere with anyone's ability to win that new car and given that restriction, I don't think Craig knew what tone to take. I still think the guy's brilliant but it didn't work. It was interesting though to see him go the other direction, being too subdued instead of not enough. End of aside.)

One thing I suspect about Letterman's replacement: CBS already knows who it'll be and probably has paper signed. They may not want to announce it right away. It'll make Dave's departure seem less like he was elbowed aside if they don't announce the new person too quickly. But the selection has probably already been made.

What intrigues me more than that person's identity is So what is Dave going to do?

A person who was close to Carson told me that when Johnny retired, he honestly wasn't sure what, if anything, he'd do in the public eye. He thought some options would present themselves…and some did though he didn't like any of them. Letterman worships Carson but I can't see him disappearing the way Johnny did. I also can't see him going out and doing stand-up like Leno or guesting on other shows or…anything. He's a very funny, popular man and it would be such a waste if he didn't do something. I'm wondering what it will be…and it wouldn't surprise me if he's wondering, right along with the rest of us.

More as this story develops.