I said here last January I wouldn't believe Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee until Nate Silver said it was possible. Well, Silver has been saying for some time it was possible and here he explains why his earlier predictions that it wouldn't happen were wrong.
Of the three guys recently in the race, I think Trump will be the easiest to defeat and I kinda feel that if he did get into the White House, he would be less of a disaster than Cruz or Rubio. That's more of a hunch than a reasoned opinion. I also still think that any Democrat would have a tremendous advantage in this election for reasons that Chris Cillizza explains.
From now until November, folks will be cheering and fretting at all sorts of indicators that Trump is more or less likely to win. I've decided to only pay real attention to the electoral vote counts. Show me how Donald has a credible path to 270 and I'll believe it's possible. Which of the 24 states that have voted Democratic in four, five or all six of the last six elections will go red this time? I'm not saying it can't be done…just that saying things such as "Trump's getting better turnouts at his rallies than Hillary" or that "Hillary's popularity nationally is down three points" are meaningless unless accompanied by something like "Polls show neck-and-neck races in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania."
I guess I'm disappointed in how things have gone because a brokered Republican Convention looked like it would be a lot of fun to watch in a kind of Thunderdome way. On the other hand, it's going to be fun watching so many Republicans who are appalled by Trump and Democrats who didn't want Hillary try to convince everyone including themselves that they got the nominees of their dreams.
And then there's a certain unpredictability to this whole election that is kind of exciting. Startling, unprecedented plot twists do not occur one at a time. Something else that once was unthinkable is going to become highly thinkable. And if you think you know what it might be, that probably proves you're wrong.