I watched the debate about a half-hour behind real time. I kept thinking of another "safe" prediction I should have made; that even if one person clearly "won," it would not be such a rout that the other side couldn't claim victory. Anyone thinking tonight would knock one candidate clean out of the race was destined to be disappointed.
For whatever it's worth, I thought Trump did poorly, if only because he didn't show any positive side of him we all hadn't seen. If you thought he was a blustery racist-leaning demagogue who lies a lot, you probably just went, "Yep!" If you were on the fence about voting for the guy, I think you're less likely to leap over to his side.
Hillary seemed calm, unflappable and in command of the issues. I think she may have buried the idea that she doesn't have the stamina to do the job, especially since Trump was sniffing enough to start up Internet Speculation about a massive cocaine problem. There's no evidence of that of course but if it had been Hillary doing it, she'd be Cokehead Clinton on a thousand websites by now.
What this will do to the polls is anyone's guess. I can't see a lot of Trump supporters jumping ship, though some of them are probably mad that he didn't deliver on the Hillary-shredding they've long awaited. I just noticed this Tweet from Noah Rothman, who's the very Conservative editor of Commentary…
Trump fans are attacking the moderator. Think everyone knows what that means.
And just as I typed that, I see Rudy Giuliani on my TV, saying Trump did great but the moderator was biased so Trump should skip the other two debates. He must've been promised a helluva job in the Trump Administration.