Jeremy Waite wrote to ask, "If you don't like people saying that someone 'won' a Presidential Debate, what term would you use?" I'd say that someone helped or hurt their candidacy…and the measure of that doesn't necessarily have to translate into a significant swing in the polls in the days following. Kerry reportedly received a huge boost in campaign contributions immediately following the debate so that alone helps him. I think he also got a lot of folks across America to say, "Hmm…he looks and talks like a president." A lot of potential voters have probably known him to some extent as the caricature painted by Cheney speeches, Bush advertising and Swift Boat Veteran fibs. I would think that a number of those folks are now more receptive to the notion that there's more to John Kerry than they thought.
Mostly, I think it's a matter of momentum. A very large number of people are not going to switch their allegiance even if their candidate shows up at the debate in drag…but some of those people might get less enthused about making it to the polls on Election Day. Another chunk of the electorate is soft in their selection. This is probably a very small group but it might be able to swing a couple of states.
The portrait of Bush on Thursday night was not flattering. If it becomes the popular perception of the man, he'll probably lose. The reason many Democrats are enthused at the moment is that they think that's the real Bush and the nation is finally beginning to see that. The reason many Republicans aren't worried is that they either think it wasn't the real Bush or that, in their hearts, the American people would still rather have that guy than someone who would bring Kerry's values to the White House.
I don't think we have any real post-debate polls yet. When we do, I wouldn't expect them to reflect any real gain for Kerry. I think Bush is going to have to stumble at least one more time before the caricature of him — uninformed, less than honest, too stubborn to change course when something isn't working — will translate into states swinging away from him.