The Writers Guild is attempting to negotiate a new contract before the old one expires at the end of October. Between now and then, you're going to see a lot of articles like this one saying that the TV and movie studios have contingency plans for how they're going to keep making movies and shows if and when the WGA goes on strike. Past experience suggests that the studios will be exaggerating this. They will have a certain amount of product "in the can" and scripts ready to shoot…but they always have a certain amount of product "in the can" and scripts ready to shoot.
There's always a certain jet lag when we strike. When the actors go out, production stops immediately. When we go out, it takes a while for anyone to notice. At any moment, there will be scripts that are done or nearly done. The "nearly done" ones can usually be produced. The producers of most TV shows are writer-producers and they get pressured to do some minor rewriting as a part of their "producer" functions…and up to a point, most of them do.
What most don't do and won't do is to start new scripts. The studios will put out the word that they've quietly "stockpiled" scripts and have plenty they can shoot in the event of a strike. Past experience suggest that this is a fib. At least, it's always been in the past. Before the big '88 strike, we heard a lot about "file cabinets full of ready-to-shoot scripts" that would keep production going at full throttle without us. Somehow, while we were all out picketing, those alleged file cabinets were not opened.
I believe there will be a strike and that it will not be a short, pleasant one. All three "above the line" unions — the Writers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild — believe it is long past time for them to get a fairer share of home video and new media revenues. From the Producers' viewpoint, it's Them Against All Three Unions, one at a time. (The actors' current contract doesn't expire until June 30, 2008 and the directors' runs out on July 31, 2008.) For reasons stated above, it's easier for them to try and stonewall the writers…and of course, if we can be made to take a rotten deal, the other two unions won't fare much better.
So it's going to get ugly. Prepare yourself for a solid month of planted stories in the press about how the business is hurting, the writers are getting greedy just when increases cannot possibly be afforded, and how there are piles of completed scripts and shows on the shelves. Boy, I wish there was a better way to do this.