The membership of AFTRA ratified its contract offer by a margin of 62.4%. That's very low — these things usually pass by 90%+ — but it's enough to seal the deal and yank the carpeting out from under the Screen Actors Guild. They have a couple of options now but none of them are all that great.
So here's Mark's prediction. SAG has received essentially the same offer from the studios. What those studios will do now is to stonewall. They might better it in some small way…give them some tiny thing that AFTRA didn't get, on the condition that they put the contract offer to an immediate vote of the SAG membership. But for the most part, the AMPTP will stand its ground, taking the position that the negotiations are over and will not resume under any circumstances. They will note that what they've offered SAG is not unfair…after all, the other actors' union thought it was good enough to take. The suggestion will be made that the SAG leadership is out of control, on some sort of personal vendetta, shutting down the town and ruining its members' lives rather than admit they were making hysterical, unreasonable demands.
And I bet it'll work. To get out of this box it's in, SAG would have to vote down that same offer and authorize a strike…and by a much wider margin than 62.4%. Since the membership is already feeling outmaneuvered and divided, I can't imagine that happening. Most of 'em will probably think it's time to throw in the terrycloth and commence the slow, angry process of repairing the SAG/AFTRA relationship. That won't be easy but if they don't do it, it'll be even worse next time. Much worse.