The WGA has taken Animation and "Reality" off the table in the current negotiations. That's unfortunate for a number of reasons, though I can't say it comes as a huge surprise. I hope we got or get something meaningful in exchange. I don't think it's just face-saving rhetoric when our leaders say that organizing efforts in those areas will continue anyway. We were making progress there before this negotiation and I can't see any reason why that would change now. It'll just take longer.

Having stated how much faith and respect I have regarding our leadership, I must say that I'm bothered by statements like this latest one from WGAW president Patrick Verrone and WGAE president Michael Winship…

We ask that all members exercise restraint in their public statements during this critical period.

I guess I understand why they said that. It could make things more congenial and productive in the bargaining…but it's so contrary to so much of what this Guild stands for. More importantly, everyone must know that the leadership of the WGA could no more get its members to withhold their opinions than Nick Counter could force Rupert Murdoch to come over and paint my garage.

The folks who run the Oscar ceremony probably won't see it this way but they oughta hope that the Writers Guild strike — either because it's on or recently settled — makes their TV ceremony interesting. Because the nominations sure won't.

This is not a complaint about those nominations. I didn't see most of the films and have no reason to think the selections aren't reasonable. It's just that how much will America care whether Best Actor goes to Johnny Depp or Daniel Day-Lewis or one of the other guys? Some awards have a lot of emotion and passion behind them…or just curiosity as to what So-and-so may do if he or she wins or doesn't win. Remember the year George C. Scott was nominated and told them to stuff it? Remember when Roman Polanski was up for Best Director? There was even some interest last year as to whether Martin Scorcese would finally, for God's sake, get an Academy Award…and there's usually one Cinderella story that will be thrillingly completed if some gifted newcomer wins.

I don't see anything like that in the list of this year's nominees. There might be a little passion for or against Michael Moore to win again for Best Documentary…but even some of the people who loathe his very jowls were impressed with Sicko, and he might feel it was appropriate if he wins to deliver an acceptance speech about that topic and not the Iraq War. So it doesn't look like there's a lot of backstage drama in the nominations. It's just a list of good films and people who did outstanding work.

In the meantime, let's speculate on what's going to happen with the Oscars, which are about a month away…

This is a guess based on no inside info whatsoever. Various CEOs are now meeting "informally" with WGA reps, trying to iron out some matters before they sit down for formal bargaining. I'm thinking maybe the studios will make some gesture of good will or good faith towards the Guild — grant them some deal point, agree to certain ground rules for negotiating, something of the sort — in exchange for which they'll expect a show of good faith from the WGA: Grant the Oscars a waiver and get the Screen Actors Guild to encourage its members to participate. I'll further guess that if the concession by the producers is of sufficient weight, the WGA will agree.

If they can't get that done, the Academy has two choices: Barge on ahead or postpone the Oscars. They may have to make that decision pretty soon. The later they announce a postponement, the messier it'll be for everyone.

I received a vituperative e-mail yesterday from an acquaintance in the WGA who seems to be hysterical at the thought they we might not grab the DGA deal and end the strike, ASAP. As near as I can tell, he's mainly upset at my suggestion that we actually see the terms of the DGA deal before we embrace it. And of course, it might be nice if someone actually offered it to us before anyone said, "Yes, yes, we'll take it!"

Some will, of course. I'm not sure it will be anywhere near a majority of the Guild.

There seems to be a rumor making the rounds that a band of high-profile screenwriters and TV show runners are writing letters or signing petitions or otherwise circling to demand that our Guild accept anything even remotely akin to the terms the DGA has negotiated. Never mind the other, writer-oriented issues that some think are pretty darned important. They — whoever "they" are — insist we grab what the directors are getting. Insofar as I can tell, that alleged pressure group is not yet massing, or at least is not quite the tsunami that some are claiming. The rumor seem to come from the same place as the one from late November that a band of high-profile screenwriters and TV show runners were vowing to all go Financial Core and quit the Guild if the strike wasn't resolved by Christmas. That rumor was pure moonshine and this one may be, too.

I feel certain it's at least exaggerated. The top writers are all people who've lived through messy, nasty negotiations in their own careers. They've learned that you can't get what you're worth by being (or at least, looking) too desperate to take whatever the studios are willing to pay. At the very least, they've learned that you have to have your agent or lawyer look long and hard at the terms before you assume they're acceptable. You don't commit based on a rough summary of your own offer, let alone someone else's.

Which is not to say the DGA deal doesn't get us closer to a resolution of our strike. Even taking its summary at face value, one can see some good things. It's good that the AMPTP has dropped its insistence on never basing any formula on Distributors Gross. Some of the numbers are higher than they said they'd ever offer…and that's always a positive, even if the numbers still aren't high enough. Things are at least moving in the right direction. Best of all, the DGA offer provides a context for us to get back into bargaining and it provides a structure for some aspects of what we need.

Personally, I think we need something we can live with for a long time. My outraged correspondent thinks we should take whatever the studios offer with regard to New Media and then, if we later realize it's too low, we can adjust the numbers upward in some future contract negotiation. That'll happen when hogs take wing. If we start on the hind tit of that marketplace, that's where we'll stay. To get the numbers up once they're established will require a strike that will make the current one look like a station break. One of the things I'd like to think we're striking for is to not have the AMPTP think that every three years, they can get us to swallow a lousy deal. If they think that, guess what we'll be doing in three years.

So I'm sticking with my radical suggestion that we actually look at the offer, get its numbers crunched by crunchers we trust, and then decide if it gives us what we deserve. If it positions us as non-participants in the future of the entertainment industry, that's where we'll stay for a long, long time.

I just read a couple of posts on other weblogs about Dr. Martin Luther King and it occurred to me that I've never mentioned him on this site; that his past birthdays have gone unnoted here. I decided I should write something but after pummelling and slapping my brain, I've been unable to come up with anything that didn't sound obvious or self-serving. I certainly didn't want to write one of those annoying (even when sincere) screeds where the person likens his own current crusade for whatever to Dr. King, hoping that a little of M.L.K.'s stature will rub off. We ought to all respect the Civil Rights movement in this country, and Dr. King's role in it, enough to not exploit it for our own little causes.

But I also couldn't figure out what to write here if I didn't do that…because the principles of human respect for which Dr. King fought, marched and died are now so obvious and so accepted. Even a lot of the people who still trample on those principles or commit acts of racism seem to realize that's what they're doing and do it anyway. Martin Luther King and his followers raised the bar on what constitutes simple decency in our society today.

Wish I had something profound to say about any of this but it's all been said…mostly by Dr. King, himself. I'm glad we got this holiday to underscore his importance and I still think the people who tried to oppose it should be ashamed of themselves.

I didn't see it mentioned in any of the obits for Suzanne Pleshette but there was one more note of sadness about her passing. A week from Thursday, on what would have been her 71st birthday, she was to receive a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. No word yet on whether the unveiling ceremony will be postponed but apparently she'd been ill for some time, undergoing chemotherapy treatments, and her friends were really pulling for her to make it to that day.

It's not a surprise since he told me he was considering it. Still, I'm sorry to see Roger Price announce that he's retiring as the promoter of Mid-Ohio Con, which has been held guess where for several decades. I've been to more than a half-dozen of them — including the last two — and I always had a great time. Having been to many comic book conventions in my day, I know a good one from a bad one, and I also know how hard it is to put on a good one. Roger put on one of the best. He's hoping to find someone else to take it over and carry on the tradition and I hope he does. Just on sheer momentum, there are still a lot of good Mid-Ohio Cons to be convened if only someone will step in.

This will just be of interest to those of you who live in Southern California…

I've been monitoring the discussion forums where the forecasters discuss their forecasts and how much confidence they have in them. They're saying all sorts of different things about the week ahead but what they should say if they're being honest is…

It's going to be mostly cloudy all week and at some points, it will rain somewhere. But we really don't have a clue where or when.

We have pretty good meteorologists these days and most of the time, they do a much better job of predicting the climate than people think. But every so often, a storm comes along that's just determined to do whatever it wants and to not follow any script. And that's what we've got bearing down on us.

Here's another chance to vote in our poll or even to change your answer. This runs until Wednesday night.

Remember, the question here is not who you'd like to see get the Republican nomination for president. We're merely asking you for a prediction as to who will be the nominee. Imagine that you'll win a huge sum of money if you guess right and then click the candidate of your choice.