I just want it over with. I'm sick of this election. I'm sick of spin. I'm sick of talk about an October Surprise. It's starting to look like the October Surprise will be that there's no October Surprise.
Most of all, I'm sick of looking at polls and of electoral maps with these states colored red and those states colored blue and the undecided ones white, and Florida and Ohio switching back and forth every day or so like a damn neon sign.
All of us are wasting way too much time with that stuff. We're even getting delusional, acting like the polls are telling us who's probably going to win. We're like people who have seen that the faith healer's patients always die but we still go to him because he's better than nothing.
An awful lot of sites are like Real Clear Politics — which, despite the following wild pitch, is still a well-respected political site in some circles. Four years ago, they analyzed all the different polls and coughed up an electoral projection that had Bush winning 446 electoral votes as opposed to Al Gore's 92. They had Bush winning 51.2% of the popular vote to Gore's 41.9% and said Nader would get 5.8%. (The actual totals, just to remind you, were 271 electoral votes for Bush versus 266 for Gore, and they split the popular vote with Gore getting 48.38%, Bush getting 47.87% and Nader racking up 2.74%.)
As predictions go, that's a pretty wide miss. You wouldn't phone a Psychic Hotline a second time if the first time was that far off the target. But somehow, people are still flocking to Real Clear Politics and to other sites and pollsters with similarly poor track records. The final Gallup Poll in 2000 had Bush at 48%, Gore at 46% and Nader at 5%. The final Battleground Poll had Bush beating Gore by five points. The final USA Today/CNN poll had Bush beating Gore by six.
We're still a week from the final polls…and even when we get them, why expect them to be any more accurate than they were last time?
By the way: In case you haven't heard, Zogby says Kerry is up a point in Colorado.