I spent some time this A.M. scanning the Internet for comments about the Jay/Conan/Dave situation and I was struck by the extent to which fans balk at accepting that their favorite performers evolve and there's nothing they can do about it.

The Beatles did not spend their careers singing songs that went "Yeah, yeah, yeah" and Woody Allen moved beyond jokey films like Bananas. As a talk show host gets older and as the world around him changes, it is inevitable that his act would change. A lot of Conan fans seem fearful that, five years from now when he takes over The Tonight Show, he won't feel he can bring along Preparation-H Raymond and the Masturbating Bear. What I don't think they realize, or want to face, is that five years from now, Conan probably wouldn't be doing those bits, or bits like those bits, anyway. He will change, and NBC's banking on him changing in a way that will work at 11:35 in the year 2009. It's a gamble but it may not be as big a gamble as some other possible scenarios which would involve him competing now with Jay and/or Dave.

I have a friend who thinks that both Letterman and Leno are doing very weak programs that ought to be advertised, "Watch our show! Our host used to be real funny." And he suggests that neither host is doing the once-traditional prime-time anniversary special with highlights from the previous year because neither host can fill out an hour with highlights from the previous year. I wouldn't go that far but I wouldn't argue much that Jay and Dave are both coasting on a certain amount of momentum. Both have matured past their old, more irreverent styles and they're not going back to them, any more than Steve Martin's going to put on the arrow-thru-the-head prop and return to doing stand-up.

Once upon a time, it looked like Carson could go on forever…but television has changed. For most of his run, Johnny had little or no competition. In fact, when he stepped down, an NBC exec theorized to me that Mr. Carson quit because he'd realized that the game was intensifying; that to stay in it would have meant reinventing his act, doing more shows per year and beating back challengers a lot more formidable than Alan Thicke and Pat Sajak. Just as Dave can no longer be Number One, there will soon come a time when Jay can't be, either.  Or if either is, it will only be by default.

And speaking of "out of control": One of the things NBC has done with this move is to change the rules of the game. They're now planning way ahead and this will probably force CBS to do likewise. Right now, the execs at NBC have their 11:35 show set through the year 2011 (Jay's five years plus two guaranteed to Conan), and they have plenty of time to figure out 12:35 and find the right occupant. They can even sign someone way in advance. Jon Stewart — the name most often-mentioned when folks speak of new combatants in the late night arena — is signed to The Daily Show through 2008. Right this minute, NBC could be offering him a deal to replace Conan at 12:35, effective in '09.

By contrast, CBS is sitting there with no real host for their 12:35 show next month, let alone down the line…no idea how long Dave will elect to remain at 11:35…and no idea who they might get to replace him when he departs. During the last decade or two of Carson's marathon run, there was usually someone ready to go in for him — someone who, if Johnny suddenly dropped dead or quit, was the obvious choice to take over The Tonight Show. Usually, that was a frequent guest host and for the last five or so years of Johnny's run, they had two strong arms in the bullpen: A frequent guest host (Jay) and the guy who followed Johnny (Dave), both poised and ready. Throughout Letterman's stint on CBS, however, there has been no one on student stand-by. Dave resisted guest hosts and, when hospitalization forced the issue, most of the folks picked were names unlikely to ever be considered for a permanent position in that time slot. The same has been true of the occupiers of the 12:35 slot after Dave — Tom Snyder and then Craig Kilborn. At one point, Letterman's company had Jon Stewart under contract but apart from filling in a few times for Snyder, he did not get on the air.

This situation of having no one "on deck" for Dave's time slot will now have to change. He can probably stay there as long as he wants but at some point soon, the network's going to come to him and say that he cannot be an obstacle to them signing and grooming a successor. Moreover, like Conan, that successor may have to be able to see that the 11:35 job will be his within some reasonable length of time. Late night has become too important for CBS to say they'll wait 'til Dave's ready to leave, then they'll look around and see who's available and see what kind of deal they can make with that person.

Which makes you wonder how, if at all, this relates to the sudden abdication of Kilborn, who recently vacated the 12:35 slot. I'm told by folks at CBS that it was of his own free will and that it really did come as a surprise to everyone. Still, Kilborn's not dumb. He had to know that the issue of who was going to replace Dave would someday rear its head, that he wouldn't be considered, and that there were those at CBS determined to install Conan or Jon or some potential 11:35 talent in that position. I think Leno's smart to plan out his future as well as he has. I think O'Brien's smart to hang in there and get The Tonight Show for himself. And I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Craig Kilborn, consciously or not, didn't do the smartest thing of all by getting out when he did.

William Saletan explains the essential problem with Bush's policies on the economy and Iraq.

Several folks have written to ask me if I thought Johnny Carson would appear on Leno's show tonight or ever, or on Dave's…and I recall that when Dave was out for medical reasons, a lot of his devout followers had the fantasy that Johnny would come in and guest host. My understanding is that it is currently Mr. Carson's intention to never, under any circumstances or for any reason, appear before a camera. Obviously, he could change his mind but close associates doubt this will happen. (On the other hand, there was a time when it seemed just as unlikely that Woody Allen would ever appear on an Academy Awards broadcast…) When Carson left The Tonight Show, he figured on finding some new niche in show business…but he never did.

He appeared on a cable award show special (an old promise) and did two silent cameos on Letterman's show. He also showed up when he received his 1993 Kennedy Center Honor…but that's it. He decided there was nothing he wanted to do and, according to one person who knows him pretty well, he discovered he liked being free of planning his next performance. The friend said, "Johnny likes that he can now go to dinner or play poker with whoever he likes without worrying that the person is going to start hitting him up to appear on his show or to get involved in some project. His pals all understand that he's out of show business and that's that."

Since then, he's turned down every invitation, every offer, every opportunity — and when you think about it, why shouldn't he? The man has no book to promote, no movie opening next Friday. He stands to gain nothing but an ego-boost he apparently does not need, at least not at the expense of a lot of people saying, "Look how old he's gotten." If he did appear again, it would not be on The Tonight Show, and not because he holds any ill feelings towards its present host. (I'm told that's all soothed over and, anyway, the problem was with NBC and Leno's then-manager, not with Jay.) It would have to be something really, really special. I can't imagine what that might be.

My pal Aaron Barnhart has a story in his paper, The Kansas City Star, all about the Leno/O'Brien announcement today. Here it is.

Another pal, Paul Harris, is covering the story on his newly-relocated (different channel) radio show. Here's some of what he and his guests have to say.

I don't really know Sam Johnson but I enjoy his weblog. In this post, he tells why he never cared for Leno. I, of course, do…but there are certain things I've learned never to try to change folks' minds about. These include religion, life on other planets, where to get the best pizza, who killed John F. Kennedy and, most of all, Favorite Late Night Host. But you might find Sam's viewpoint interesting.

Someone has invented a ringtone for cellphones which they claim will cause a woman's breasts to get bigger.

I will post that again, just so you don't think it's a typo.

Someone has invented a ringtone for cellphones which they claim will cause a woman's breasts to get bigger.

Here are the details.

I haven't seen a copy yet but I'm told that today's Daily Variety has a story about the Groo movie deal I mentioned here last week, complete with a drawing of the stupid barbarian. The press release is up over at Ain't It Cool News.

Here's the text of an e-mail sent out today by Jeff Zucker, president of NBC Entertainment. It was addressed to the staff but was obviously intended for public dissemination…

Today, we are celebrating the 50th Anniversary of our late night franchise "The Tonight Show."

Today also marks another important milestone in our great late night history. In a few moments, we will be issuing a press release announcing our succession plan for this important television institution.

Jay Leno will continue to be at the helm of "The Tonight Show" for another five years, well into 2009, after which time Conan O'Brien will become the host of "The Tonight Show." Jay will officially make the announcement on his show tonight.

After that, it's back to work as usual for Jay, Conan and their teams, who will continue to provide us laughs for many more years.

I can't say enough about this late night team and these two men – especially Jay Leno – who worked tirelessly with us to help us find the appropriate time to make this announcement.

Thanks to both men we have a very bright future in late night!

This is quite amazing, especially when one remembers that Conan O'Brien is the guy NBC renewed in 13-week increments (and actually cancelled at one point) during his rocky first year or two. Now, the network has given him an unprecedented long-range commitment even if, as one expects, NBC has left themselves some sort of "out" clause…say, if O'Brien's Late Night ratings plunge before 2009. Even leaving aside however they may feel about Leno, they had to be pretty scared of O'Brien leaving NBC, either to replace Letterman or to compete in another venue.

Most outward signs suggest that Letterman isn't going anywhere for the forseeable future. Then again, a few hours ago, everyone would have said that of Mr. Leno. This change may prompt some response on the CBS front. Letterman may commit to staying until 2010, just so he can say he out-lasted Jay.

There are all sorts of questions here, and we may or may not get answers to them soon. Is Leno receiving a huge payoff and some sort of long-term deal to do other things for NBC?  The folks I'm talking to this morning over at NBC are still triple-checking that today isn't April 1.

Tonight's episode of The Tonight Show marks the 50th anniversary of that venerable franchise. There will be clips and surprise guests…and also a very surprising announcement. Everyone had figured that Jay Leno, workhorse that he is, would stay in that job forever, or at least until he'd beaten Mr. Carson's record of a little over 30 years behind the desk. Not so. Jay will announce that he will host the show five more years — until 2009 — at which time, he will step aside and Conan O'Brien will take over. This is obviously some negotiated compromise having to do with NBC not wanting to lose O'Brien, and it's quite unprecedented in television. I can't recall when any network ever locked themselves into something five years in advance. They're always aware that trends can change, stars can fade or emerge, etc.

More on this as it develops. But you heard it here first.

Hey, wasn't this about the time the Bush Administration was supposed to be rigging oil prices to bring them way down? Well, they'd better get busy.

I was so swamped last week that I forgot to mention that I dropped by the gala signing last Wednesday evening for the new Gary Owens book…which, despite what I said here, is not his autobiography. It's a book about how to build a career in the voiceover and announcing business and while it contains many amusing anecdotes, Gary's actual autobiography is actually planned for release some time next year. Anyway, Gary had an overflow crowd of devout fans and friends turn out to buy this book and get it signed, the "friends" including Ruth Buzzi, Jonathan Winters, Fred Travalena, Chuck McCann, Howie Morris, John Rappaport, Steve Landesberg, Thom Sharp, Ronnie Schell, Jo Anne Worley, Jack Riley and quite a few others I'm forgetting.

The formal event was held in the parking lot of Dutton's bookstore in the Valley, which is right next to a Popeye's Fried Chicken stand. For about a half hour there, if you'd gone through the drive-thru at Popeye's, you could have been entertained by those folks as you waited for your jambalaya and biscuits. (Mr. Winters and Mr. Travalena were especially in top form.)

Once again, you can order Gary's new book, which will tell you all about the voice business, by clicking here. Ignore all that humble stuff he put in there about being fortunate and getting lucky breaks and all. I understand why he says such things, him being such a nice, modest guy and all. But the honest truth is that Gary Owens has worked incessantly for more than four decades because he's so good at what he does. This is not to say one cannot learn from him…but it's like if you took putting lessons from Tiger Woods. It helps to remember that much of his success is because he's better at it than just about everyone else.

Also: While I was there, I got to chat with Fred Wostbrock, a top Hollywood agent who represents some of the above-named stars. That impresses me but not as much as his uncanny expertise on the topic of game and quiz shows. Fred was a co-author of The Encyclopedia of TV Game Shows, which is one of those must-have volumes…and he has a new book about to debut, The Ultimate TV Game Show Book. This is a compendium of trivia that I've already ordered. If you've found your way to this website, you're probably the kind of person who'd be interested in this kind of stuff, too.

On October 17, John Cleese is hosting a show called John Cleese's Wine for the Confused which, in this online video, he says is on The Food Channel. Mr. Cleese is himself confused since his program is actually on The Food Network…but I intend to watch, anyway. I've never had a drop of wine in my life but I'll watch anything John Cleese does. Even if he is in men's clothing.

It's amusing to see all the Kerry and Bush partisans running around, trying to lower expectations for their guy in the coming debates. As I understand it, the idea here is to say, over and over, that your candidate's opponent is a master orator and that it will be a major victory for your candidate to just hold his own. Of course, immediately following the debate, you'll be out there declaring that your boy hit a grand-slam and utterly humiliated the loser at the other podium.

The thing I like least about debates is…well, there are two things. One are those post-debate interviews where — surprise, surprise — the Democratic party spokesperson comes to the unbiased conclusion that the Democrat won handily, while the G.O.P. spokesperson declares without prejudice that the Republican was the big winner. I'd give major props to anyone with the candor to say, "Well, of course, even though my guy lied his butt off, contradicted all his past statements and accidentally confessed to several sex crimes, I have to stand here and insist that he won in a walk."

The other thing I can't stand is during the debate and it's the stark, pointless insistence on rules. Two grown men who seek to lead the country ought to be able to stand or sit there and just talk and ask each other questions and rebut points on any subject without someone saying, "You have 42.5 seconds to address only this one narrow topic and no other." The only reason they have rules is because one or both debaters wants to hamper his opponent's ability to confront him head-on. I'd have a lot of respect for any candidate in any race who said, "I'm in favor of none of us who are on the ballot having any say in how the debates are run. Let's just let some non-partisan organization decide how many there are, where they're held and how they're conducted…and I'll be there and do it their way." Anything less is a sign of cowardice.

Michael Kinsley discusses whether Osama bin Laden favors Bush or Kerry.

You oughta check out Jim Hill Media often because they're always posting some neat article, usually Disney-related. Today, I was interested to read this unofficial review of the new Mary Poppins stage musical that's previewing in the U.K. But I also like all of Floyd Norman's columns on the animation business and Jackson King's pop culture pieces and…oh, heck. Just go there and read everything.

I've written hundreds of comic books, some of which I can barely bring myself to look at. You can tell because I signed the misfires with my pseudonym, "Tony Isabella." But if only by sheer luck, some comics turned out well, and the ones that people most often tell me they liked were in the Crossfire series, published back in the eighties. Well, there's now a new paperback that reprints the first six issues in black-and-white. It's not that big a gamble. Even if you don't care for my Hollywood-based crime tales, you can savor the artistry of Dan Spiegle, one of the true greats of comic book illustration. It should be in most comic book shops by now or you can order from Amazon via this link. Hope you like it. And I hope even more that you buy it.