Spoke today to a couple of folks who are in and around the Late Night Teevee Biz. They reinforced a lot of what was said in the previous item, and the consensus seems to be that a Letterman move to ABC is a longshot. This evening on The Newshour With Jim Lehrer, Bill Carter himself only pegged the likelihood at around 20% — which makes one wonder if the story even deserved the prominence it was given. One person who seems to have inside info gave me a likely-sounding theory to answer my question, "Why is this in the paper?" The theory is that Letterman's people were worried that it would leak in the form of, "Dave — who once tried his damnedest to get Jay Leno fired — is now going after Ted Koppel."
By releasing the story as they did, they made certain it included the spin that ABC is considering the dumping of Koppel anyway…which is "sorta" true but is apparently far from a done deal. My source says ABC would be a lot happier if Mr. Koppel took fewer evenings off and if Nightline did more to woo younger viewers. If he won't do either, and if a real good alternative presents itself, Nightline would probably be history, at least in its present form and time slot.
But it's not a goner because, among other reasons, that real good alternative ain't there. Nightline has been getting around the same ratings as Letterman, though with a less desirable demographic. That's not great for ABC but the show is by no means a disaster, and claims that it and Politically Incorrect are losing millions are probably grossly exaggerated. Both would have been axed long ago if that were literally true, as their ratings have not notably declined the last few years, nor have they become markedly more expensive. (P.I. has a separate, unrelated set of problems. Some affiliates don't like its contents or feel it belongs on their network.)
Today, some message boards are erupting with suggestions that Jon Stewart* or some other prominent comedian will get the 11:35 slot on ABC or CBS — wherever Letterman doesn't wind up. In truth, it's not that simple. You don't cancel a show like Nightline — with 4.5 million viewers — until you've got a replacement that you're reasonably confident will draw at least that many. At the moment, of all the conceivable contenders, Letterman is the only one with any track record in that time slot. Jon Stewart might do as well…but I doubt anyone in the TV biz, including Mr. Stewart, would bet their condos on that if they could avoid it. For the same reason, CBS will probably settle with Dave…who can't be all that eager to uproot a secure show that has been slowly gaining in the ratings and move it to alien turf and its inevitable uncertainties.
To answer a couple of questions…
One correspondent wrote to ask, "If Letterman does wind up at ABC, wouldn't Koppel just take Nightline to CBS?" Nope. First off, Koppel might go elsewhere but he doesn't own the show. Secondly, CBS has launched its first-ever successful entertainment franchise in that slot and isn't about to abandon that. Thirdly, if they did want a news show in that position, it would be a major slap in the face of the CBS News Division to fish one out of a competitor's wastebasket.
Another asked if being on ABC at 11:35 was that much of a ratings benefit over being on CBS? Answer: No, not all that much. Yes, ABC currently has stronger lead-ins but that could change rapidly…and anyway, during part of the year, Monday Night Football bumps the 11:35 show into a non-competitive position in many markets, one night a week. Letterman would have to come up with a new studio from which to broadcast (he'd almost certainly stay in New York) and move his offices and figure out what he wants to have follow him at 12:35, et cetera, et cetera. It's a helluva lot of work and risk for what might be a slight advantage…and might not.
I've gotta run but first, this footnote:
* I think Jon Stewart is one of the most brilliant host-type comedians working today. I'm off now to attend a tribute to The Daily Show at the Museum of Television and Radio. If I get a chance, I'll post a report here later about the event and what, if anything, is said about the above. Bye!