The Big Story

In all this talk about that Trump guy, we lost sight of the most important thing being decided in this country last Tuesday. There were two ballot measures in San Diego to build a new stadium for the Chargers and those proposals might have created problems — maybe even disincentives to stay in that town — for the annual Comic-Con International.

Well, both measures failed. In fact, they failed by wide margins and while some of their backers say they'll pursue legal options to make these things happen, that doesn't seem likely.

Now maybe they can get back to talking about expanding the convention center down there in ways that will make Comic-Con even more likely to stay in San Diego forever. As you may know, this blog believes it ain't gonna go anywhere else for a long, long time.

We Have a Winner!

Hey, remember our contest to predict how many electoral votes Hillary Clinton would receive? Seems a little pointless now, I know, but I think we can wrap this up even though the count isn't final.

Three states — Arizona, Minnesota and New Hampshire — remain uncalled so we don't know her precise final total but it will be one of these numbers: 228, 232, 239, 243, 244, 248, 255 or 259. As it happens, one person guessed 268 and that'll be the closest guess. Everyone else who had her losing (i.e., below 270) had her in the hundreds — wishful thinking, no doubt.

About 1100 of you entered. About 1050 of you understood the instruction to put your guess in the subject line of the message. I was going to disqualify all of you who didn't but as it happened, it wouldn't have made a difference.

One person wrote me a very long, detailed explanation of why he was certain she would lose California. It had something to do with an imagined rebound from liberalism that I have yet to notice in my state. It sure wasn't visible in the way we voted on most of our propositions.

The lowest guess I received was 112. The highest was 475. I want to thank those of you who guessed in the 400s not just for your optimism but for making my guess of 350 seem not quite as bad as it was.

Over a hundred of you guessed 323, which I think is what one pollster projected. There were a lot of votes for 317, 340 and 358. When you come right down to it, most of us didn't do any worse than experienced poll analysts and statisticians who did actual math and ran thousands of simulated match-ups on their computers.

Our winner is Jeff Ziegler who wrote that he was hoping he was wrong and that she'd get at least two more to win. For his fantastic forecasting, Jeff will receive…absolutely nothing, otherwise known as the same amount that rich people will be paying in taxes eventually if Paul Ryan has his way. Thanks for playing, all ~1100 of you!

Today's Video Link

Back in this post, I introduced some of you to Linda Eder, a woman with an incredible singing voice. I got a lot of messages from folks who were unfamiliar with her work but thrilled to know about her. So here she is again, singing a gender-inappropriate song but singing it so well that I will henceforth think of Don Quixote as a cross-dresser…

Another Waste o' Time

My heart is with those who are now flooding city streets, protesting Donald Trump's election…but I really don't see the point. When I've marched for a cause, there has always been some objective: We were trying to get the government to stop a war or we were trying to get a specific law passed or we were trying to get the Motion Pictures and TV Producers to return to the bargaining table and make a deal with our union.

What is the goal here? To express anger and to let everyone know that we think a very bad, dangerous man has been elected? I'll betcha everyone knows there are a lot of us who feel that way. Does someone think that blocking traffic is going to get the election reversed? Cause Trump to step down?

Like it or not, the guy won by what passes for "fair and square" in elections these days. I mean, I think he lied shamelessly about his opponent and probably exploited questionable info leaked to him from Russian sources. That is not cheating. Not in the country that watched those Swift Boat commercials and voted against John Kerry. That's Trump's first achievement as president: There is now nothing that's too coarse or dishonest to say about your opponent. If I ever run against you for public office, you won't believe what I say about you.

Maybe those folks in the boulevards feel good just to be expressing their anger. I understand that but I think it's wiser to save up that anger and that urge to do something. We may need a lot of it the next four years.

A Waste o' Time

All this chatter about abolishing the Electoral College is going to go nowhere. People, especially when they feel they've "lost" some decision unfairly, love to call for Constitutional Amendments. Some public officials have called for hundreds of them. First, they make their speeches and then…

…and then nothing happens. Most of them never do anything but to give the speech, promise to do everything possible to make the amendment happen and then they do nothing. Or maybe they do one or two meaningless gestures and then nothing ever happens. There's no way to measure this but it would not surprise me if less than one out of every half-a-million calls for Constitutional Amendments ever advances to the point of being voted upon.

It certainly can't happen without bipartisan support and what are the chances that Republicans — who in the last few decades have won two presidential elections because we have the Electoral College — will get behind such a movement? Conceivably, they might after one or two elections in which their candidate wins the popular vote and loses the White House…but it could be fifty years before that happens. And when it does, the Democrats — who will have won an election because of the E.C., won't be in a great hurry to abolish it.

I don't even have an opinion as to whether it would be a good idea or not because even if it is, it ain't gonna happen. Let's go on to more pressing topics…like what happens when President Trump starts pardoning Chris Christie and everyone else on his team, including himself?

My Latest Tweet

  • Trump says he's going to create zillions of new jobs. That's good because I know lots of people who need one. Most of them are pollsters.

Today's Video Link

Here's a video that has nothing to do with elections. It's the openings of two classic 60's sitcoms — in Spanish, courtesy of Stu Shostak…

Wednesday Morning

Got two hours. Woke up. Thought for a moment it had all been a bad dream but no.

Then the phone rang. A friend calling. A friend who obviously hadn't read my blog or she'd have assumed I was asleep even though I wasn't. She needed someone to talk to.

She's terrified. She couldn't get insurance before Obamacare but now she has it but for how long? She said, "Republicans are now in control and they want to get rid of it, not because it's bad, because it isn't, but because it's Obama. They don't connect that with saving the lives of people like me. Or maybe they don't care."

Her mother is panicked. Panicked that Trump's going to start a war overseas and a race one in the U.S. Her mother said, "The people who hate blacks and gays and Mexicans. They think they won control of the country last night. Republicans won't stop them."

My friend needed someone to talk to. I talked to her. Said what I could, which is that it won't be as bad as it feels like at the moment. I don't know if I believe that or not but I believe it's the best way to think right now.

She talked about a mutual friend of ours, someone who may cause me to need another one of those "Friends Mark Has Lost" graphic.

He called her. Gloating, beaming, jubilant. He's thrilled with the outcome and not, she thought, for the right reasons. He doesn't think Trump will Make America Great Again. He thinks Trump means misery for all the kinds of people he hates. She never realized this person has such a long list.

From the day Obama won, our mutual friend talked about "taking our country back." There's that phrase again. The mutual friend said he never felt like this was his country with Obama in the White House.

And of course, it isn't his country and never was. Pronoun trouble. It's our country and it's not supposed to be configured to just our specifications.

She says she knows how he felt because she doesn't feel like she even has a part of this country now. Not with so many people in it who voted for the pussy-grabbing, race-baiting liar.

I told her she'll get used to it and it's not forever. And you can't rule out the possibility that the man will rise to the job and be so concerned with being beloved (and re-elected) that he'll try to win over folks who are terrified. He says he wants to rebuild roads, bridges and general infrastructure. That doesn't sound bad to me, though I'm worried it's a way to shovel tax dollars to private companies that will in some way benefit him.

But maybe not. And hey, we survived George W. and some other horrible presidents. And some of the justices appointed by Republican presidents didn't turn out the way their constituencies had hoped. Maybe it won't be so bad.

She said I made her feel better but I don't know that I convinced her. Hell, on two hours sleep, I don't know if I even convinced me.

Later (But Still Early) Wednesday Morning

Yeah, I'm still up. This is not a good night for sleeping.

In his victory speech, President-Elect Trump said

I'm sorry. I never thought I would have to type those words.

In his victory speech, President-Elect Trump said "Now it's time for Americans to bind the wounds of divisions. It is time for us to come together as one united people." I'm sure I'm not the only person who heard that and thought, "Gee…who was responsible for most of those wounds of divisions? Maybe the guy who constantly called his opponent crooked, promised to toss her in prison, grinned as his audiences chanted 'Lock her up' and now says we owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country."

He followed this with a promise to be a president for Republicans, Democrats and independents alike, adding that it was "important" to him. I suspect most Democrats and independents heard that and thought angrily, "He doesn't mean that" while many a Republican heard that and thought happily, "He doesn't mean that."

To me, the big problem in this country is people who think that if you have 51% of the vote, you're supposed to get your way 100% of the time. It's just like how no one these days wants a Supreme Court Justice who's going to be impartial and who might side with Liberals on some cases, Conservatives on others. They want someone who's going to dependably deliver for their side on every matter because, you know, the correct interpretation of every law is the one that yields the results you want.

Trump did not invent this "we should get everything" attitude. He exploited it deftly to win the nomination…and I think he was lucky that none of the other contenders looked like they were ruthless enough to deliver it. I'd be happy to think he meant that stuff about embracing Democrats and independents but he doesn't. Politics doesn't work that way anymore and I don't think it will work that way again in my lifetime…which will be drastically reduced if I don't get some sleep. Good night again.

Today's Video Link

Stephen Colbert did a live Election Night Special on Showtime, a channel I do not get. Here's the last nine and a half minutes of it and I think he says some things that all of us could agree with. And don't think that's easy to do these days…

Early Wednesday Morning

Some thoughts before I pretend I can go to sleep…

Pundits seem to be scrambling to come up with one reason why so many people voted the Trump-Pence ticket. I can't believe there was one reason for everyone or even that most people only had one reason. And yeah, there were some who voted for him because he was white and/or male but that's not the whole story here. And if you want to understand as much of the whole story as it's possible to understand, you have to start by not thinking there was only one reason and everyone had the same one.

People also seem to be trying to predict what will change in this country. I don't think even Trump and his crew know that. They might know some of the things they want to do…but a criticism of Trump that even my friends who backed him thought was valid was that his plans about a lot of things were vague — he'll replace Obamacare with "something great" — or in some cases, his promises were contradictory.

What we have here is a lot of uncertainty. The reason the stock market is way down is largely because of uncertainty. A broker once explained to me that the market prefers bad news to uncertainty because you can plan for bad news if you know what it's going to be.

As I said, those who think Bernie Sanders would have won might be right but I don't believe that's anywhere near certain.

And I honestly don't understand what those who voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein or wrote in "Porky Pig" thought they were going to accomplish. I could see myself getting behind a third-party candidate if I thought (a) the candidate in question was a wonderful leader or (b) a better-than-expected showing would make that party more viable for future elections. But I didn't get that anyone really loved either Johnson or Stein. Those who voted for them just seemed to be sending a message of "I can't vote for either Donald or Hillary."

Maybe their parties qualified for some matching funds for the future but what good is a third party if it all it can do is barely qualify for matching funds so that next time around, they can again barely qualify for matching funds? Can anyone name a way in which the causes of Libertarianism and protecting the environment have been advanced in the slightest by this election? Or come to think of it, the last few?

Once the vote totals are firm, someone will figure out a way in which, had not Johnson or Stein been in the race, certain states would have flipped from Trump to Clinton and she'd have won. I am dubious of most of these "What if?" scenarios. We have no way of knowing how many of the folks who voted third party would have simply not voted had their candidate not been in the race…or who they would have voted for if they did vote anyway.

One year ago, if I had told you there was a G.O.P. presidential candidate who wouldn't disclose his finances, had avoided taxes, filed multiple bankruptcies, had many business associates who thought he was a crook, was clueless about the Bible, insulted minorities, set new records for lying on Politifact and other fact-checkers, considered Global Warming a hoax, had multiple divorces and marital affairs, not so long ago was pro-choice and favored the Democrats, is facing a fraud investigation and has said demeaning things about women including that he liked to grab them by the pussy, what kind of odds would you give me that this man could win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency?

And as near as I can tell, the people who voted for him don't dispute most or in some cases any of the descriptions in the above paragraph. They just decided that the good that could come from him in the White House was so great that those things could be ignored. I sure hope they're right.

I'm not one of those guys who when their side loses an election, prays for there to be so much destruction and disaster that "they'll be sorry they voted for him." For one thing, I don't want to see destruction and disaster. For another, how many people have you ever met who, after the person they voted for had been in office for a few years or even months ever says, "I wish I'd voted for the other guy"? Usually, it's "The other guy would have been even worse."

Finally for now: I'm curious how a guy who (last time I checked) had around a 60% disapproval rating got around 48% of the vote. Did a fifth of the people who voted for him just happen to be from the smaller group that liked Hillary Clinton less? I suppose we could ask a pollster to find that out for us but it's going to be quite a while before any of us are going to trust one of those people again. Good night.

Two More

I've exchanged some very nice, mature words and e-mails this evening with Trump supporters I know. But there are a couple who don't seem to know how to be good winners…

trumpcounter06

Later Tuesday Evening

The two times Obama won, Republican friends of mine shrieked, cried, announced it was The Death of America and predicted that within four years, this country would look a lot like one of those post-apocalyptic movies where the few who have survived fight off zombie attacks and battle for food. I'm not fearing that but I do think a lot of folks are going to suffer…and if there are roaming zombies, most of them are going to be former pollsters.

I feel there's been a kind of a two-part wrongness among those of us who backed Hillary. One part was to not fully understand the anger that's out there among people who think the country is in ruins when there are so many economic indicators that it's not, and how they feel the urban elites have neglected them. The other part — and this is the piece I really don't get — is why they thought Donald Trump, who has never given a shit about people who weren't rich and famous, was the guy to change that.

I followed this stunner of an evening primarily on various websites, which I found more satisfactory than any of the TV channels I briefly watched. On a website, if only two things happen in a half-hour, they put up two posts or maybe three. On TV, they have to say the two things over and over and over, plus say a lot of unimportant or wildly-speculative things because at any given moment, someone has to be talking. The more of it I listened to, the less I knew.

Among the calls I've received in the last few hours was one from a friend who's been hectoring me for some time. He's angry that while I voted for Bernie Sanders, I wasn't wildly outraged that Hillary got the nomination, nor do I think she stole it from its rightful owner. There's no question in his mind that Sanders would have won…and maybe he's right that Bernie would have, though I'm pretty sure he's wrong to be so certain of that. We'll never know what the opposition would have done to him. They certainly would have convinced a lot of people that this was a war to stop the Socialist Takeover of America.

Those who believe the government has too much power have just given it greater power than it's had in many years. The government couldn't do that much when no one party had a lock on all three branches of government. Gridlock was the order of the day.

It can do plenty when one does and that's what we'll have. That would be scary with anyone in the White House and it's very scarier with the guy who now looks like he's going to get there. As I write this, Hillary Clinton has not been mathematically eliminated but anything short of total pessimism seems disconnected from reality. Come to think of it, it all seems disconnected from reality. Maybe we should all go help build that wall on the Southern Border. Mexico's going to pay for it, you know.

Tuesday Evening

I'm starting to get the feeling Hillary's not going to get to 350 electoral votes.

Today's Video Link

You're probably fixated on other matters today…and knowing my readership, a lot of you have probably already watched this weeks' Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and seen this.  But just in case you haven't, you need to.  It runs 32 minutes and it only begins to tell how people the world over are getting bilked by Multilevel Marketing operations like Herbalife and Mary Kay. This kind of thing oughta be stopped and the folks behind them oughta be in little rooms with bars on the windows…