Boy, David Copperfield is good at what he does. And what he does is to just come out and do impossible things, right before your eyes…and in my case, only a few feet away since I was sitting front row/ringside at his late show last night at the MGM Grand. Even that close, you couldn't see how he did anything. A few folks may have been disappointed that he didn't vanish the Statue of Liberty or escape from a safe inside a building as the building was imploded. And a couple of frat-type boys sitting next to me were audibly disappointed that there were no sexy dancers or scantily-clad magician's assistants. But he did make a car appear and he did pass through steel and he did crush himself down to about two feet tall and he did cause thirteen members of the audience to vanish, plus he levitated just about everything that wasn't nailed down. So I'd say they all got their money's worth and then some.

I was impressed by the wizardry but I think I was even more impressed by his sheer perseverance. It was a dead house — no energy, not a lot of clapping. In his first thirty seconds on stage, he said two joke lines that obviously got about a tenth of the laughter he's used to…and sitting as close as I was, I could actually read the magician's mind. He was thinking, "This is gonna be a long show."

Every performer has 'em. It's something in the air, something in the ozone. There are a number of stories of entertainers comparing notes after their respective shows — two guys playing different clubs in the same town. Upon exiting the stage, one would phone the other and they'd correlate audience mood. Not always but 90+% of the time, if one had a non-responsive crowd, the other had a non-responsive crowd.

Mr. Copperfield had one at his 10 PM show…but he's been doing this a long time. He knows what to do. He upped his own energy an extra notch and he encouraged people to clap to the music and he milked every spark of audience interest for all he could wring out of it. Sure, the guy knows how to do great magic. But I was just as impressed that he knows how to work a crowd and to entertain them as much as they'd allow themselves to be entertained and maybe a little more than that.

I want to go back and see him some night when the audience isn't impersonating a matte painting. I'm sure that's most of the time…because what he did on stage was quite spectacular and worthy of a lot more ovation than he got at his second show last night.

One other thing I'll mention…

As a longtime student of magic, and a guy who's been known to make his friends suffer through a card trick or three, I've often been amused by bogus explanations. A couple is walking out of a magic show and the lady mentions some trick and asks her date, "How did he do that?" The guy doesn't know but he doesn't want to admit he's sans clue…so he just makes up something. He says, "Oh, there was a mirror" or "Oh, he has a twin brother they keep secret and it was the twin who got into the box." Something like that.

One time I was exiting Penn & Teller's show and I overheard a couple discussing a fire-eating segment…and of course, there really isn't a lot of gimmickry to fire-eating. It's mostly a matter of knowing how to hold the burning torches and how to spit gasoline through the flames and such. The secret is basically to be careful and practice a lot…but the guy didn't seem aware of that. He was telling his lady friend, "They use a thing called Cold Fire. It's a chemical that looks like fire but it's not hot and it can't burn anything." Needless to say, there's no such thing.

In his act, David Copperfield did a trick where he appears to pass his body through an inch-thick piece of sheet metal. Audience members came up and banged on it with a hammer and then Mr. Copperfield and it were covered with a huge sheet of plastic and he appeared to pass through the metal. Very impressive. As we filed out after, I eavesdropped on a couple…and the man might as well have been the Cold Fire guy. I shall now attempt to replicate what he said…

The outer part of the metal plate is real but the inner part of it is one of those liquid metals…you know, like Mercury. Only it's not liquid because when they show it, that part's frozen solid so it might as well be metal. Then when they move it into place before he passes through it, there are hidden heaters which defrost the center part and by the time they put the plastic over it, it's soft enough that he can pass through it. And the soft metal is self-healing so the hole he makes heals up and you don't see it after he's on the other side. Easy as pie.

I heard that and I thought, "Boy, if that's how Copperfield does that, he deserves every cent he makes." And a lot more applause than he got last night.

These things happen to me. I don't know why. I don't know how. But these things happen to me.

I have this friend named David Siegel. David is a devout comic book fan, especially of the older books and the folks who wrote and drew them. For many years, he has been a main force behind the annual Golden Age Panel down at the Comic-Con in San Diego. He doesn't host them — I do — but he's been so valuable that a few years ago, the convention bestowed unto him an Inkpot Award for his contributions. Mostly, they consist of locating veteran comic book writers and artists who have been away from our little community…guys who'd never been to a convention and maybe never knew that they had fans out there.

Dave finds them. He located Fred Guardineer, the artist for (among many other features) Zatara the Magician. Fred was in an Assisted Living Facility (i.e., Old Folks' Home) and didn't imagine that anyone even knew who he was or what he'd done. Dave located Fred and got him to San Diego for what Mr. Guardineer told me was the greatest day of his life.

Dave found Chuck Cuidera, the original artist of Blackhawk. I helped a little but Dave's the one who found him. One day on the phone, I casually mentioned to Dave that someone oughta find out if Cuidera was still alive. I knew he'd retired to Florida a decade or two earlier but that's about all I knew. DC Comics even had money for him — fees for work of his that they'd reprinted — and no idea where to send it. Armed with just the meager info I gave him, Dave leaped onto the phone, began calling around Florida…and three hours later, he called me back to proudly announce, "Just talked to Chuck Cuidera."

He not only talked to Cuidera, he got him to come out to San Diego for another one of those greatest days of an old-timer's life. And of course, because of Dave, Mr. Cuidera got all that money DC Comics was holding for him. Dave's done a lot of things like this, finding people who were "lost."

Once, he even found me. One day about twelve years ago, I had a lethal deadline and I went to Las Vegas to work. I didn't tell anyone I was there. (Correct that: I didn't tell anyone I was here. I'm writing this in a hotel room in Las Vegas.) I certainly didn't tell Dave, who works as a cab driver in this town.

I was staying that time at Harrah's and my second or third day here, I decided to take an hour out and walk over to Treasure Island to denude their buffet of lunch. I was crossing The Strip when I suddenly heard someone yell, "Evanier!" Since there are only about seven Evaniers in this world, the odds were they meant me.

It was Dave in his taxi. He immediately executed…well, it wasn't exactly a "U" turn. It was more like an "N" with one of these (~) over the top. But right in the middle of Las Vegas Boulevard, he swerved around, swept me up in his cab and whisked me off to lunch. I still can't believe he spotted me…but I really can't believe what just happened.

Like I said, I'm in Vegas. I'm here for the Licensing Show which starts tomorrow…meetings with a producer, conferences with a publisher, etc. My plane landed at 2:45. I walked down to the Baggage Claim and claimed my baggage. I went out to where you can get a cab.

At the Vegas Airport, as with most airports, you don't pick your own cab. A dispatcher tells you which one is next. The dispatcher told me to hike down to Position 12 and take the cab that was there. I hiked down to Position 12 and I bet you can see where this is going. Well, I didn't…

But there, waiting for me at Position 12…was Dave Siegel.

There are 5,000 cab drivers in this town. I know one. And that one was the one who happened to be assigned to me, can you believe it? I was so stunned that I almost tipped.

As we warned you, the Comic-Con International in San Diego is sold out. All tix gone. Zip. Empty. None available at the door. Don't bother asking. This kind of thing will happen next year, too…so don't be shocked when it does and you didn't get around to signing up.

I will be on, hosting or co-hosting fourteen (14) panels. The official schedule won't be up for at least a month but my "to do" list will include all your old faves — Quick Draw, Jack Kirby panel, Golden Age panel, Sergio/Mark panel, etc. There'll be two big panels featuring Cartoon Voice Actors and this year, all but one or two of the participants will be new to our dais. We'll also do a sequel to last year's well-attended panel about the business end of Cartoon Voice Work — how to get an agent, how to prepare a demo, how not to get ripped off by predatory "teachers," etc. There'll be one-on-one "spotlight" interviews with veteran comic artists like Gene Colan. There'll be individual spotlights also turned on great performers like Stan Freberg and June Foray. I'm especially excited about a planned panel that will gather together the three main "Bob Kane" ghosts who drew Batman in the forties and fifties. Oughta be fun and memorable.

I'm told hotel rooms in San Diego are still possible to get if you do a little digging and don't insist on sleeping too close to the action. When we get closer to the event, I'll try and link to info on how to use the city's fine trolley system to get from where you stay to where it's all happening. That will be for those of you who won't be able to use the convention's very efficient bus shuttle line which stops at many hotels. The one thing you don't want to rely on is getting a parking space at or around the convention center. Last year, the fine voice actor Rob Paulsen was supposed to be on our Sunday panel of folks who do what he does for a living. Five minutes before, he phoned me with sadness and exasperation in his famous voice to tell me he'd been driving around for an hour and couldn't find a place to put his car. If it can happen to Mr. Opportunity, it can happen to anyone.

Many a fan writes to tell me that they've never been to this thing and are scared off when they hear of lines the length of the Ganges, a dearth of parking, the nearest hotel rooms being in Guadalajara, etc. Don't be. First of all, those problems only exist because so many people have a great time at the con and find any inconvenience more than worth it. Secondly, tens of thousands who attend find little to complain about. If you do a little advance planning, it can be a breeze and a half. Thirdly, even those who bitch long and loud don't usually mean it the way it sounds. I have a small group of friends who every year denounce the crowds and the parking and the lines and the costumes and the price of a Diet Snapple…and the point is they do this every year. None of it stops them from attending.

If you aren't signed up for this year, it's probably too late. But as the Oakland Athletics say, there's always next year. Or the year after or the year after…

You know, I'm beginning to get the idea that the saying is wrong…that what's good for General Motors is not good for the U.S.A.

Okay, here's my fearless prediction about what's going to happen with the reconfiguration of the NBC schedule with Leno and O'Brien and those two guys who come after them. I think it's easiest to divide the prediction up into stages because that's how this thing's going to roll out.

Stage One starts Monday when Conan takes over The Tonight Show. I've found Conan disappointing the last year or two. I can't think of a single new, innovative thing he's done to equal his earlier achievements. There have been nights when he comes out and does what's largely a medley of catch phrases — "Be cool, my babies" and the string dance and a lot of mugging and such. That's great for the studio audience, boring at home. I'm assuming, based on his past track record, he and his crew will rise to the occasion, dump all that needs to be dumped and do an exciting, fresh program. I hear his test shows have been great and his set is spectacular and his mood, with the new gig and Andy Richter back on the premises, is reborn.

My guess is Conan will do very well during Stage One…and of course, that's self-perpetuating for a while. When your show is hot, the hot guests flock to it and that keeps you warm.

Stage Two starts in the Fall when The Jay Leno Show debuts at 10 PM. I think it'll do well the first few nights, a little less well the second few nights, a little less well after that and so on. ABC and CBS will be throwing stunts and heavyweight programming against it and The Jay Leno Show will not feel like "must see TV" with that competition. It'll be like, "We can watch Jay some other time" and much of America will not want to miss the big event on CSI Muncie or whatever's against him. Having Jay on will also diminish Conan somewhat. The best guests will be split between two shows instead of them all being on Tonight.

There are times when you can almost feel the press and competitors chomping to declare failure and I smell schadenfreude in the air — folks who've never liked Jay, those who've been enjoying NBC's decline, etc. Within the industry, there are many who resent that Leno is occupying five hours of network prime time that, they think, would otherwise have gone to shows from which they could have financial or career benefits. The minute it can be said, it will be said that the Leno Prime Time Experiment is a disaster. I don't think it will be but I expect we'll hear that, just as breathessly as we once heard that going with Jay over Dave was the biggest bonehead mistake a network had ever made and The Tonight Show would never be Number One again under Leno. What could make it a genuine flop is if affiliates believe that and defect…or threaten it in sufficient numbers.

We've already seen the NBC station in Boston declare they were going to stick an hour of local news in at 10 PM in place of the new Leno offering. The parent network went to work, applied pressure and got Boston on board…for now. But what if The Jay Leno Show performs below expectations in its first months? Or what if it's doing okay but too many of its viewers take its closing credits as a signal that it's time to go beddy-bye? That would not only hurt Conan further but cause many local NBC stations to consider doing what Boston wanted to do or, more likely, bumping Jay to 10:35 and putting their 11 PM local news on at ten. Local news is a key source of revenue for most stations and if a lot of NBC affiliates see a drop-off, the game will become whether the net can keep them from going rogue.

NBC knows this, thinks they can prevent it…and probably can. Since his last show, Conan has been visiting affiliates, shaking hands, taping promos, building their rooting interest. Between now and the time his new show debuts, Jay will be doing a lot of that. He'll also have this going for him: Even if it finishes second or third in its time slot, his show will probably be quite profitable for NBC. Even giving him a Lamborghini full of money every week, the network stands to make a ton because his program will be so much cheaper than the usual 10 PM film show. They can afford to pass some of those bucks on to the affiliates in various ways and to spend a fortune on promotion and advertising. They have too much riding on this not to. Still, both shows could have a rough period between the time Jay goes on and the point where we get to Stage Three…

I don't know exactly when Stage Three will kick in but it will be when his competition becomes primarily reruns. CBS and ABC may work hard to delay it but at some point, the math of prime time license fees demands that they program repeats against Leno…and that's when Jay with his new shows will have a big advantage.

Back in the Paleolithic era of television, reruns did as well or almost as well as new programming. But in the era of VCRs and TiVos and dozens of other channels on cable, that doesn't happen. For some reason, whether a show feels old is more significant than whether people can recall seeing it before. That's why Jay and Dave both do fewer reruns than Johnny did…and why they select them from a few weeks back, instead of (as J. Carson did) a year earlier. Jay will get a boost when he has new shows opposite reruns at 10 PM and that, I think, is when the success of the new venture will be realized.

Leno will do well enough then to make up for any weakness in the early months of the experiment. Conan will regain enough ground that he'll be secure. The guys I think are going to suffer are Carson Daly and, to a lesser extent, Jimmy Fallon.

You may not know who Carson Daly is but he hosts a stealth talk show. It's on NBC right after Late Night With Jimmy Fallon…or at least, I think it is. I haven't checked lately and from what I can tell, neither has anyone else. He stays on, year after year, because he shows a modest profit and doesn't cause problems. It's an unimportant time slot with nothing to support. Leno's new venture will not be a true talk show but it'll have the look and feel of one…and I can't help but think that Daly's will come to be one talk show too many, especially if NBC's rerunning Jay's show in the early A.M. (I suspect that's under discussion. It would be a lot more entertaining than the televised poker they have there now. Then again, watching my mother apply salve to her psoriasis is more entertaining than televised poker.) Maybe they'll try switching Daly to cable but I think his show's going to go away…and if and when it does, I think Jimmy Fallon will turn into Carson Daly.

I like Fallon as a performer but I can't watch his new series. I try every week or three but they still look like test shows to me. He has little rapport with his guests, not a lot of commanding presence as a host…and if you ever want to make sure I turn off your show, just bring studio audience members down and ask them to lick things in exchange for a ten dollar bill. Chuck Barris would be embarrassed to put that on television.

He's getting decent numbers but he's also not showing great strength. Craig Ferguson on CBS occasionally beats him and does it without the benefit of as strong a show on before him. Ferguson has a following…Fallon has a lead-in. NBC may be too busy fighting for Jay and Conan to pay much attention to Fallon and it'll probably be easier to just leave him on as long as he shows a profit, the way they've left Carson Daly on. (Fallon's show is also a Lorne Michaels project and the last thing anyone at NBC wants to do is displease Lorne Michaels.) I don't think he's going away but I also can't imagine him being very important…not the way Dave or Conan were once important in that time slot.

Speaking of Dave: I don't think any of what happens on NBC will affect him much. He might lose some share to Conan for a few weeks as viewers see what the The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien is like but it'll all settle back to the old levels. I don't imagine anything that happens on NBC is going to make a lot of difference in his life. Or Jimmy Kimmel's. They're more likely to be impacted if someone new gets into the mix…like if Fox hired away Jon Stewart and gave him an hour at 11 PM, that would be a Brand New Ball Game for everyone.

As you might have sensed, I don't have gobs of confidence in any of this. The waters here are just too uncharted. Still, it does seem to me that those who are predicting disaster for Leno at 10 PM are underestimating, as onlookers so often have, Leno's popularity…and also the value of counterprogramming new comedy shows against rerun cop shows. Some are also saying that the lineup of Jay/Conan/Jimmy/Carson will be just too many programs that cover much the same ground. I think that's true but that the weakness will show at the end of the parlay, not at the beginning.

Anyway, if I had to bet, that's how I'd bet: Stage one, Conan does great. Stage two, Leno debuts strong but soon drops off and maybe drags Conan down with him. Stage three, both shows rebuild to the point where the whole idea of Jay at ten, Monday through Friday, starts to look like a smart move. Dave and Jimmy are unchanged. Carson Daly goes away. And Fallon hangs in there with one of those shows that no one watches but somehow it just stays on.

Let's see if I'm even vaguely close to right. A few years ago, I wouldn't have stuck my neck out with a prediction like this but I've been watching pundits on cable news. There's no longer any penalty in this world for getting everything wrong. And at least if I'm wrong, I'll be wrong about something pretty inconsequential.

The Los Angeles Times is now, like most newspapers, in a certain amount of business trouble. But fifty years ago, that company published not one but two papers. The L.A. Times came out in the morning and then they had an afternoon paper called The Los Angeles Mirror.

Each had a full page of comic strips. Here's what the L.A. Times comic strip page looked like. And here's what the L.A. Mirror comic strip page looked like.

I mentioned before here that the musical version of The Producers was, incredibly, being staged in Germany. Well, it's opened…and it's a hit.

I thought Mr. Leno's last show was okay…not his best but pleasant enough. His big comedy piece was a montage of past "Jaywalking" bits and I've developed an intolerance for routines based on the premise that human beings can be really, really stupid when you put a TV camera on them. I feel the same way about Letterman's employment of Rupert, the deli owner around the corner from his theater. Dave seems to have dialed back on those bits lately while Jay has embraced the concept.

Still, I've generally favored Jay over Dave the last few years. I TiVo them both but don't watch a lot of Letterman unless something different seems to be going on…something that knocks Dave out of that dour manner he often has. Increasingly, he reminds me of what I came to dislike about Dennis Miller.

This was before Miller's shrewd career change from Topical Comedian to Fox News Correspondent. I saw him at the MGM Grand in Vegas with Rita Rudner as his opening act. She was very funny. Miller wasn't. He did his whole set with an attitude of "I'm too hip to be entertaining you people so somebody gimme my check and let me outta here." It was all, every word of it, old material I recognized. A topical comic oughta have at least one joke you haven't heard before. I remember Miller did his line about how the models on The Price is Right were getting old and oughta be rotated…then followed it with the one likening Dan Quayle to Binzer on the TV show, Vegas. This was long after Vegas was off the air and every single other comedian in America had filed away his Quayle jokes in the same folder as the "Kate Smith is fat" material.

One of the things I like about Leno is that he's not afraid to enjoy the little party he throws as much as he'd like us to. He enjoys his monologue. I know what it takes to write that thing every day and it ain't easy. He likes most of his guests and makes them look good with his enthusiasm. Yeah, some of the stock bits are silly and I could do without most of the Special Correspondent segments where it stops being The Tonight Show for ten minutes. But there's something about watching Leno that I just like…which is really all it takes with one of these shows. (Mr. Carson used to say, "It's all about the guy behind the desk.")

Much is being written about what the ratings dominance of Jay over Dave says about our national character or intellect. I don't think it says anything more than that more people like Jay's current show as opposed to Dave's current show. I think they find Jay's comfortably predictable and Dave's, uncomfortably predictable. My guess is if they were opposite something as fresh as Letterman's old NBC program in its early years, neither host would have many viewers. NBC's primary motive for doing what they did, displacing Leno with Conan O'Brien may have been a fear that O'Brien could do such a show…and do it on Fox with an 11 PM start time.

Before the weekend is out, I'll have some more thoughts here about Jay and Dave and Conan and late night TV. This probably interests me more than it should…but it is my third favorite spectator sport right after Ladies' Nude Volleyball and the Republican Party Demolition Derby. Check back soon.