I don't want to act like I think my decision on who to vote for in the California primary is important. I mean, it is important but no more than anyone else's decision. At the moment, the polls suggest a Mr. Bernard Sanders will run away with it, with or without my vote or yours. But a lot of you are writing and asking me about my thought process, such as it is, so I thought I'd explain it. If you don't care, I won't blame you if you skip the rest of this posting. I might skip one you wrote about your thought process.
My thought process (such as it is) turned into trying to decide if I should vote for the person I'd most like to see in the White House or the person I thought had the best chance of beating Donald Trump. I wish those were the same person but I came to the point of deciding that my top picks in the first category were Sanders or — second choice — Warren…
…and then my thinking in the Trump-defeating contest was more like Biden or Bloomberg or someone more centrist. There are two goals here and neither one is to try and peel off votes from the people who think God picked Trump and told them to ignore all those bankruptcies and financial scandals and sexist remarks and outright lies. One goal is to win the Independent vote. The other is to motivate folks who would vote Democratic if they went to the polls but who might think they had better things to do on Election Day than to vote. Both goals are especially vital in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Florida.
But then I got to thinking about some advice I read on a blog — I think it was the one you're reading at this moment — about how so much can and will change between now and November. Look how the matter of the coronavirus came outta nowhere for most of us and how it's changing the game in so many ways.
We know how popular Sanders is in the polls taken today but where would he be after Trump and his allies had hammered Commie, Commie, Commie into the worries and fears of so many frightenable Americans? (Did you know Bernie and his wife honeymooned in Russia? If that doesn't prove he secretly wishes they'd conquer and enslave us, what does?)
And where will any Democrat be after all the phantom, not-to-be-proven-until-after-the-election (i.e., never) scandals that will brand him or her as corrupt and certainly headed for the prison cell next to Hillary's? (As we all know, no human being has ever opposed Trump over even the teensiest things and not been utterly corrupt.)
So I came to this way of thinking: The electability of any nominee will change, in ways we can't know yet. We have no idea how much of the mud will stick…or how many swing votes would still prefer a muddy Democrat to a second term for Donald…or what scandals and batshit-looney statements will impact Trump's own popularity with those willing to take that kind of thing into account.
How popular (how "electable") any of the Democratic candidates will be after the dirtiest election in the history of mankind is unknowable at this time. Nor do we know how it would impact the incumbent if his taxes were released or the infamous, alleged pee-tape actually turned up or one of the women accusing him of Weinsteinesque behavior came forth with solid proof or…well, we can all think of endless possibilities. I'll bet even some of Trump's staunchest supporters are anticipating new dirt they'll have to justify ignoring.
What is pretty knowable is what the candidates say they want to make happen in this country. That probably won't change much, whereas their electability can go in all different directions, especially after the Dem's standard bearer selects a running mate and we see if Trump keeps Pence. There were people who were way more enthused about John McCain after he selected Sarah Palin and those who thought less.
So I decided to put that stuff I can't predict mostly aside and focus on who sounds most like they understand how the economy and the environment can hurt us. As I was pondering this, it got easier. Not all decisions in this world get easier if you put them off. Some get much, much harder but in this case, it got easier as Julián Castro dropped out and Cory Booker dropped out and Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar and all the others dropped out, and Tulsi Gabbard was never really in it in the first place as far as I was concerned…
Mike Bloomberg seemed like a maybe before I read more about him. That quickly eliminated him in the "Would Make a Good President" category and he failed in the "Could Beat Trump" consideration due to his rotten first debate performance. So that left Bernie, Joe and Elizabeth. I marked my ballot for Bernie but I'd be fine with any of them. Anyone would be better than Trump…and I don't mean anyone who is or was an announced candidate. I mean anyone, maybe even you. That's my thought process…such as it is.